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» Thoroughbred News | » 08-29-2016
Belvoir Bay Makes the Grade in Torrey Pines
The scratch of odds-on morning-line favorite Enola Gray opened the door of opportunity in the $100,000 Torrey Pines Stakes (gr. III) Aug. 28 at Del Mar and Belvoir Bay shot right through it.
Cavorting to Distaff, Mohaymen Gets Time Off
The morning after Cavorting added another impressive Saratoga Race Course victory to her résumé in the Aug. 27 Personal Ensign (gr. I), trainer Kiaran McLaughlin lavished praise on the 4-year-old filly.
War Front Gets 50th Black-Type Winner
Central Kentucky sire War Front, currently the leading sire of juveniles in England and Ireland, and second on the U.S. list, got his 50th black-type winner Aug. 31 when Intelligence Cross captured the Round Tower Stakes (Ire-III) at the Curragh.
Baffert Reflects on Arrogate's Travers Romp
On the morning following Arrogate's record-smashing performance in the Travers Stakes (gr. I), Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert had nothing but accolades for his new stable star.
Baffert Forever Linked to Unbridled's Song
It was 1996 and Bob Baffert, then a relatively unknown trainer, made his first impact on the classic scene when he brought Santa Anita Derby winner Cavonnier to Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby.
Arrogate's Romp Enhances Half Sister's Value
The value of a Medaglia d'Oro filly consigned to the Keeneland September yearling sale increased after her half brother Arrogate romped to a Travers Stakes (gr. I) triumph in track-record time.
Brown Looks Ahead With Flintshire, Lady Eli
The morning after he saddled 18 runners on the Travers Day card, trainer Chad Brown was already looking to the future for Flintshire, Lady Eli, and Sea Calisi.
'Canadian Million' Races Set for Woodbine
Six stakes to showcase Canadian-breds purchased at previous Canadian premier yearling sales are set for Aug. 31 at Woodbine on a night billed as the Canadian Million Sales Stakes.

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Video Board - Top Beyer Speed Figure Races Of 2015

BC Classic 120

BC Dirt Mile 114

Pacific Classic 114

Woodward Stakes 114

Sword Dancer 114

King's Bishop 113

Whitney 113

Met Mile 112

Travers 2016 Contenders | Value Line | Analysis
Exaggerator (8-5)
American Freedom (5-1)
Creator (15-1)
Laoban (17-1)

It's tempting to look at Exaggerator as a mud freak. I know. I almost did scanning down his PPs for this race. As I was scrolling down his list of races, I started asking myself (knowing full well what the answer was, but asking nonetheless), has this horse ever won on a fast track? Not only has he won on a fast track, but he's won on a fast track at Saratoga. And his TimeFormUS figs have remained pretty consistent, even between his wet track victories and his fast track losses (the only exception being the Belmont Stakes, and I think we can all agree it wasn't the fast track that made him run a sub-par effort in that one).

So, don't be tempted to downgrade Exaggerator today because the track will be fast. In fact, I think this race sets up for him quite well given the expected fast pace up front. Do I think he offers the best value in the race? Definitely not. But I think he WILL represent value nonetheless, because I think a lot of people will push him down a notch or two precisely because it will be a fast track today, and that should give the Exaggerator backers plenty of value if he's anywhere near his 3-1 morning line odds, as I see him as a legit even money horse (which translates to the 8-5 betting line with my 25% overlay requirement).

But I prefer betting on boxcar horses in races like this, and see at least one who is very interesting in this spot, and that horse's name is Creator. Yes, he didn't run a lick in the Jim Dandy over this strip last time out. Yes, a bunch of horses running back in the Travers beat him in the Jim Dandy. And yes, Exaggerator is a better horse with a similar, but slightly more advantageous running style. Yes, this race sets up for both these horses pace-wise. But if Creator is back on his game, I think the distance of this race suits Creator more than it does Exaggerator. And I'm hoping the wagering public really slams Creator for that last race, because there is zero room for wagering with him being 15-1 on my betting line and 15-1 on the morning line.

Finally, the scary horse to me in this race is American Freedom. He's still lightly raced, still improving, and he's the kind of horse I love...he can slug it out on the front and still be there at the end. Does he absolutely have to set the pace? I don't think so, and I'm hoping Bejarano lets Laoban do the dirty work while he sits back a bit, as this will be the longest race he's ever run. But again, this horse doesn't seem like he'll offer much value to me.

Now that I think about it, my second paragraph here was wrong. When you get right down to it, maybe the biggest value in the race IS Exaggerator, but I detest betting on favorites, even the lukewarm kind.

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