5/30 race 5 CD
 

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | CLAIMING : $25,000 | PURSE: $37,000 Turf

:1: ML 30-1 Zeke G. Saez 124 Lbs M. Lovell $30,000 L
Gio Ponti - Dancing Years | El Prado*Ire
:2: ML 30-1 King Valero E. Morales 124 Lbs
A. Gonzalez $30,000 L
Eskendereya - Montana Miss | Mineshaft

:3: ML 6-1 Love Your Buttons B. Hernandez, Jr. 124 Lbs
M. Tomlinson $30,000 L
Tiz Wonderful - Misgoldy | Miswaki
3rd off long layoff; 9-1-1-2 turf record; some things to like

:4: ML 30-1 Bemma's Boy D. Cannon 124 Lbs
B. Combs $30,000 L
Into Mischief - Arcing | Arch
1 for 1 on the turf w/a 79 Beyer at the distance. 30-1 ML seems high

:5:ML 5-1 Shakes Creek F. Geroux 124 Lbs B. Cox $30,000 L
The Factor - More for Me | More Than Ready
Cox and Geroux; 2 for 3 on the turf, blinkers on; underlay?

:6:ML 12-1 On Patrol T. Baze 124 Lbs T. Vance $30,000 L
Street Sense - Criminologist | Maria's Mon
Ran 4th on the lead in slow paced mile turf race at CD last; two good Beyers on the dirt but seem outliers compared to other figures. Will use and curious to see his odds.

:7:ML 30-1 Briar Jumper J. Gilligan 124 Lbs
M. Crowder $30,000 L
Brilliant Speed - Bob's Barb | Lord Avie
Poor trainer and jockey win %.

:8:ML 15-1 Alittlevodka A. Beschizza 124 Lbs N. Pessin $30,000 L
Midshipman - Stand by the Phone | Phone Trick
16-2-3-2 all time turf record; 0 for 2 in 2019 w/poor efforts in allowance competition, drop to claimers wakes him up? Not using

:9:ML 3-1 Clear for Action T. Gaffalione 124 Lbs M. Maker $30,000 L
English Channel - Catty Barry | Cat Thief
Broke maiden in 20K claimer by 6 lengths at GP, then backed it up with a win in a $50n2l in wire to wire fashion. Found allowance foes to much running 5th, splitting the field, but only lost by 4 lengths, winner won by 2 1/4 lengths. Will use.

:10:ML 8-1 Sekondi C. Lanerie 124 Lbs M. Morrison $30,000 L
Divine Park - Soundwave | Friends Lake
Comes out of the same last race as On Patrol and Love Your Buttons finishing 5th-top 5 horses w/in 1 1/4 lengths of each other. Comments state bold bid hung. Couldn't close into slow fractions? Using

:11:ML 9-2 Almoreb J. Graham 124 Lbs D. Peitz $30,000 L
Blame - Manaal | Bahri
Long layoff 13-2-3-1 turf record, bullet work but 0-6 at the distance; dropping in class. Using

:12:ML 4-1 County Court S. Elliott 124 Lbs
C. McGaughey III $30,000 L
Harlan's Holiday - Home Rule | Empire Maker
Many break lines in pps, won 2 races on the turf @1 1/8. Using

Also eligible: McCormick 8-1 ML 93 turf Beyer. Claimed two races back for $50K now in for a $30k tag-wont use if draws in

Last leg of the early pick 5, looks like a total crapshoot. Thought it would be a good race to analyze and get different opinions. Hopefully they bring On Patrol from off the pace this time-the call for the upset.

Who do you like?
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...4/summary.html

:9: could easily wire the field if Gaff doesn’t get to hold him back but he will be 5/2 and that’s no fun...

:4: is interesting. Looks bred to do well on turf imo, is 1/1 on turf at RP with a decent fig. Could be itm at a huge price.

The :12: Shugs horse ran against some good competition in NY and drops from the allowance ranks like the :9: he will likely be the second favorite.

The :13: McCormick should he draw in will get some play from me. He ran well against good horses at GP ad KEE. His running style didn’t suit the way the Tampa turf played this meet imo.

If I remember to play it I will look at a little WP money on :13: and back wheel the big long shot :4: underneath in a tri with the others mentioned above.

Looks like a fun race. Do not see the :9: getting a uncontested lead here. So play against.

:3: Love Your Buttons is a strong one for the win. Do not see why he has not run at this distance before.

:10: Sekondi Toss the sinker in the slop at Keenland and you have a horse that has been close against non claiming types. Not to thrilled with this one but the figures say he can get there.

:5: Shakes Creek is two for three on the turf and you get Cox and Geroux, not to shabby of a combo.

A bomb to consider,

:1: Zeke Lovell is not a idiot when it comes to turf training. The two figures back in October and November say this guy can win here. Trainer is 6 for 11 in the money at the meet and is moving the horse up after its last race, that happens to be the claiming price it was claimed for.

how is the turf track been playing

I looked at the race and really wanted to find a reason to play this guy. The connections are interesting; it seems like a guy's only horse and over the years, his (presumably) one or two or three horse operation has done pretty well.

What drew me to the horse and the move here is that it plays as the old third off the layoff angle. But, this is really just a picture-perfect example of what makes third off the layoff a good move outside the parameters of mere fitness. I'm going to figure that they thought they had him pretty tight for the most recent. But, when he made a big move and then just flattened out, they decided to come back and make sure they had him tightened down with a pair of works and a crack in this $30k N3L. And that's what often makes the third off layoff move so effective. The first time you know you probably need one. The second time you expect something. So when it doesn't work, you get cracking. Train harder, train differently, drop in class, equipment - you aren't about to be disappointed three times in a row because there are no more excuses.

So I love a lot of what is going on an want to key him, but... he just does not want to win from what I can see. He didn't win a maiden race, it was awarded to him. And he came right back when he was ultra sharp off that "win" and took down the non-two by a nostril - he didn't exactly demonstrate a newly found desire to run away from horses and run up the score.

Ultimately, as much as I am intrigued by the connections and their moves here, they still haven't gotten a win out of him and I really don't think it is their fault exactly. I'm not sure he has any sort of nose for victory. I can't remember very many times where I thought I liked a horse enough to use, but couldn't key on top if I did. This might be one of them.

VALUE; at a glance
 

RACES 5-8 is (at least at first glance) a nice Pk-4 sequence. Was thinking about working out that p4 and playing and/or posting. Hard night/Errands-this-afternoon make that less likely at this point.

Purely at a glance, but possibly true, the 5th race really hinges upon :5: SHAKES CREEK. Brad Cox is taking money, and this horse has always taken money.
A close second in importance may be the :9: CLEAR FOR ACTION for the Mike Maker barn.

If you 'solve' this race, and are looking at 'beltway numbers' :9::5:, you may want to look at the late Pick-3, races 6-7-8... , but if you have a legitimate reason to dislike the :5: or both the :5::9:, then you want to crush this race and maybe do a p4 as well.

Multiple scratches in the race:7:. :8:, :9::10:, :11:, :13:, :14::ThmbDown:

Pick-3, races 6-7-8 remains a nice sequence after the scratches.


If I can rest, and muster up some energy/rally I may play along. 50/50

My P4 races 5-9
3,5,12 / 1,2,7 / 4,6 / 3,4,12 = $27

I'll 'roll the dice' here, and make a P3 races 6-9.

No real opinions, just glancing at the PPs and throwing it together 'for fun'.

https://i.imgur.com/qmZvTY6.png

busted
 

needed chalk in the middle

On Patrol wire to wire on the dirt