Down to three on top
 

Pretty much down to three who I plan to use on top:

1) Fierceness - BP, RAN, fast final fractions, and should be on the lead at the final turn.

1A) Sierra Leone - BP, RAN, fast final fractions. All depends on whether he can clear traffic coming home.

3) Catching Freedom - Should be further up front than Sierra Leonne heading into the final 1/8, and if Sierra Leone finds trouble, could be the one to pick up the pieces at the end.

I just read these stats 1) that between 2013 and 2023 , only 2 KY points leaders won the derby (2013: Orb and 2014: California Chrome) that applies to Sierra and 2) Since 2013, when the 100 point races began, 7 went on to win the derby, But 4 of the last 5 winners did not win a 100 point prep race. That would apply to Sierra, Fierceness, and Catching Freedom and a few more. I didn't fact check but the poster is a big time horse guy.

If those stats are true, wow. I just dont like anyone else enough to play them up top.

I am gonna have all 3 of them on a a ticket or 2 and then a bunch longshots to. Once the post positions come out should make things a little clearer

That a way . I pretty much think you have to have 3 in mind . And be ready for variables like scratches and weather . It’s fine to have a key horse if you really like one that year . But IMO you gotta have a back up plan which includes your best horse under neath .
The years where a REAL pace develops are often the ones with crazy results. Recently the races where a front runner or stalker has a nice even pace ..,,, it’s more predictable. And usually chalky

Fierceness can definitely dominate the race on the front. I don’t see another horse that can legitimately go with him once they reach the stretch if he’s running his best race. When he hasn’t fired, he presses a slow pace and finishes evenly. I’m looking for candidates that can control the pace and press. An even Fierceness in the stretch you hope to get 2 or 3 ahead of him off a moderate pace. At least that’s how I see the highest probability, but you know a horse could just freak and set a fast pace and string the race out and set it up for someone running late.

That happens to me. And then it's always someone in the 10-1 to 20-1 odds range (or a toteboard explosive) that seems to upset the balance. I thought Epicenter and Maximum Security were absolute unbeatables (barring a catastrophy).

If you like those 3, why not look at who finished 2nd to them in the last race? I'm sure you'll find value there.

But out of those 3, I think Catching Freedom will be the overlay.

I am going to build exotics around Prat, whoever he decides to ride.

Epicenter reminded me of Silver Charm in his preps. He wouldn’t let anyone pass him in Louisiana. He was my derby horse. I said before the race the only way he gets beat is if someone sneaks up on him at the wire like Touch Gold. Epicenter repelled every horse until Rich Strike snuck up on him at the wire lol.

Two winners in the time frame since 2013 were flukes,
Country House never ran again and Rich Strike never won again and was
just a lucky POS .

I was looking at long shots that finished in the superfecta in the last ten years and noticed Mr. Big News at 46-1 finishing 3rd in the 2020 Kentucky Derby.

Looking at his pps I don’t know how you could come up with that horse.

How did he even qualify for the derby?

the
 

I still believe that was one of the best rides in the stretch in my 30 years of handicapping, he weaved his way in side and out of one paced and slowing horses and picked up lead was unbelievable. The horse happened to catch two back to back races whereby the paces eventually collapsed. If the race before where he closed to finish which I believe was the Jeff Ruby and he hit the board in 1 1/8 just to get enough points to make the ae list. The extra distance along with the same scenario and that saying of Lightning striking twice.

He was not the first derby winner who ended up turning into just an extra horse as a three year old and at 4. Animal Kingdom, Super Saver...Mind that Bird... never the superstars after word... A great horse, great sire now, was my derby pick and people laughed at me........His name. Gun Runner.. I believe he ran 3rd... pretty sure his 3 year old campaign was good but interesting enough, what happened when he hit 4 year... He matured, and kicked ass that whole year. So....some of them peak, they stop or the money in the breeding destroys it and we never know what they maybe like after they are allowed to grow into their manhood as horses. I love the picks but to be honest with you... I would not trust Fierceness, one bad step in this race or not up front.. he quits... Whoever backs him better hope he can hold that up front pressure.. Because the past two years have shown that 22 and 44 with any pressure on who decides to blow their motor early will hinder this horse at 1 1/4... We shall see ...this is not Bob Baffert and the cream or the needle and Mr. Pletcher has had his issues this way too. Give me Sierra Leone with Catching Freedom or Just a Touch with perhaps Mystik Dan... this horse is sneaky........

Boxing the 3 chalks is a bold move.

What next, a daring expedition to the local grocery store?

Depends on what type of neighborhood. :)

Since the subject of Silver Charm and Epicenter came up let me explain what I like about Encino.
In the Battaglia Epic Ride had every advantage on Encino in the stretch, Encino wanted to win. It took him a little while to get going is the one thing I didn't like, but we have a lot of stretch in the derby.

In the Lexington they could have gone another 3/16 and Encino wouldn't have let Wine Steward past. Sorta like Epicenter and Silver Charm. He's a racehorse, and I'll take him over every one of these prep winners that run the stretch like a drunkin sailor. One thing about the Lexington that I think is overlooked: the distance between Encino and Wine Steward from the rest of the field. Open Lengths

Ha. Very true

Was on the road 2 years ago in Kentucky. Had to stay an extra week. So I obviously had to do some laundry as I packed for a week. I always pack a couple extras....., but... another week?

2nd time I've had to do laundry on the road. Jersey was awful, Kentucky wasn't bad.

SO..... a lesson for you all. Never lose your shit in Jersey.