BC Distaff
 

I'm inclined to see this as a match race between Stellar Wind and Beholder. Stellar Wind has grown into a super mare along with Beholder, who she beat the last 2 times they met. Of course, Beholders last brilliant workout may indicate she is sitting on another super-race. Then again, Stellar Wind just out-worked her stablemate Hard Aces, a Gr1 stakes winning older male horse. Songbird is a dominant 3YO but has yet to prove herself against the big girls. As California Chrome has shown, horses get better with maturity.

With males the 3YOs often beat the older horses late in the season because the best males are usually whisked off to stud before they reach their peak as older horses thus depleting the older male ranks. Chrome is the the rare exception because they thought he would make more money racing than at stud due to his "unfashionable" pedigree. Females are allowed to race into their best years and have an edge over their less mature rivals.

Songbird will win this race.

Easily.

I don't believe in Beholder anymore. The last 2 speed figures look good, but Stellar Wind is simply better, and Songbird has room to improve.

Richard Mandella has been tough when BC is at SA. Would expect Beholder to run real well. The question to me is does the tough Songbird compromise her chances.

Barring a bad trip, Stellar Wind should take care of business. Odds board will be backwards in this one... Even if you want to make a case for the others, they will be underlaid.

I believe Songbird is one of the "hype" horses you can leverage against BC weekend

Yes. I love Beholder and she has been a super mare for a very long time. But the reality is they don't win forever. I have a growing voice from my gut that won't let me put anymore money on her.

The same happened with Game on Dude, I ended up getting burned the day he went all beast mode on Mucho Macho Man and Will Take Charge in the 2014 Big Cap. No matter, I cheered for the old bastard anyway, tearing up my tickets as he finished the field off.

Stellar Wind will win. I agree.

I think she can beat colts and they should consider the Pegasus.

I don't think she could beat Chrome, but the others, yes.

I'll add Arrogate is a bit of a wildcard, maybe he is better too, but need to see it again.

Arrogate is a huge wildcard.

What the heck do you do with him after he freaked in the Travers and will have zero races till the Classic? He is going to get bet, so you either hammer him if you like him, or is a complete toss in my opinion.

The Distaff is the race I'm most looking forward to along with the turf races. Dirt Mile should be pretty good as well with a bunch of really good horses, but no superstars.

I just have a sneaking suspicion that we get a pace duel in the Distaff and somebody other than the top 3 bring it home. I'm a Chatterbox, maybe Curalina? Should be great stuff either way.

I agree. The tote board will be heavily tilted toward the big three, but I will certainly take Curalina at anything over 10-1.

yes indeed. I think Beholder's age is starting to show a little. Explains Stellar winds last 2 wins against her. This Songbird is at her peak.

I'm a chatterbox and curlina lost on travers day to Cavorting in a very competitive race. any one of them could have won that day IMHO.

yeah a ton of good Horses.
I see Songbird taking on all challengers and winning by 2 lengths. She's just too good , Like Royal Delta and Azeri That's a single for me.


YOU HAVE TO HAVE ARROGATE ON TOP IN ANY EXOTIC PLAY. SUICIDE IF YOU DO NOT.

Baffert on breeder's day with a monster horse on his home turf. He's 1-2. Chrome will have the seasoning advantage. But Baffert may enter 2 Horses. Try to take some speed out of Chrome early. He was 1-2 in the Travers I hit the exacta.

Or more likely, Stellar Wind has matured up to Beholder's high level.

I don't think Arrogate's performance will be so black and white. He could run another huge one, bounce a little, bounce a lot or anything in between.