Florida Derby
 

Damn, do I love this race. The public is going to make it a three horse race with Fierceness at 6-5, Conquest Warrior at 5-2 and Hades at 7-2. I see it as a four horse race with Grand Mo the First as the fourth. If you are going to bet the race you have to answer one big question with confidence, did Pletcher have Fierceness ready or not in the Holy Bull.

:1: Frankie's Empire 12-1 ML Is a step below the top four but looks clearly the next best of the other seven. He almost caught the :6: last race and would have two steps past the wire. The added distance should make him be able to turn the tables. There is a super high 5 and he looks like the one to round it out. If one of the four throw in a clunker he could run fourth.

:2:Hades 7-2 ML He isn't getting away with pedestrian fractions like he did in the Holy Bull. Having the inside post may allow him the lead but at what cost? While he may wire the field I don't see it. I think he fades to third or fourth.

:3: Bail Us Out 15-1 ML Pletcher said he would have to step up big time to contend. That is an understatement! Going from a maiden win and only his third start is next to impossible to do. TOSS

:4: Grand Mo the First 15-1 ML I loved him in the Tampa Derby and the crawling pace made his speed figure weak. Don't be fooled, he is going to run big and the extra distance is only going to suit him. He runs well on all three surfaces which shows he has talent. Five for five in the money so far! The longshot special to hit the exotics!

:5: Real Macho 20-1 ML Both of his two turn races have been horrendous and that isn't changing now. TOSS

:6: Le Dom Brom 15-1 ML Don't think he wants any part of nine furlongs. He would need someone to throw in a clunker to round out the super high five, which is always possible. Looks best of the rest though.

:7: Catalytic 20-1 ML Going from six furlongs and only his third race is asking way too much against this group. He couldn't even with an NW1 last race. TOSS

:8: Seminole Chief 30-1 ML Would appear that he does his best running on the lead or close to it and that isn't happening. Went off almost 15-1 in an allowance race tells you he isn't well regarded. TOSS

:9: Conquest Warrior 3-1 ML Damn, can a horse get hyped any more than him? His Brisnet times of 86 88 86 won't cut it as far as winning goes. He also hasn't run against anyone. Merit who he beat last time isn't any good. The horse has talent and will be hard to keep out of the super but winning looks doubtful.

:10: Fierceness 8-5 ML I will come right out and say it, I think Pletcher had him nowhere near ready condition wise, probably 60%. I think he thought he could win on raw talent alone and he was wrong. Pletcher blaming the start is a poor excuse as the great ones overcome adversity. He is working lights out and Pletcher will have him at the top of his game. Hard to see him out of the top two! THE PICK

:11: Iris's dream 30-1 ML Had to go to the turf to win and the outside post is a killer at GP. Couldn't beat Maidens in a six horse field two back on the dirt and won't be anywhere in this race. TOSS

My selections are :10::4::9::2::1: No excuses today for the champ!

I simply can't wager on :10: Fierceness or :2: Hades.

:10: Fierceness has ran two absolutely brilliant races in his 4 race career. He has also laid down two absolute duds. Will he be back in form this time around? Likely. Maybe. I'm not laying down money at 1/1 or less to find out.

:2: Hades is undefeated and treated me well in the Holy Bull, but that was so ridiculously slow, I simply have to play against next out.

Both have a lot of questions to answer with 9F being amongst them and :10: Fierceness post being another solid concern.

Leaves me with the :1:, :6:, or :8:.

Really not much speed in this field at all, and I fully see :10: Fierceness being fired out of a cannon early to get the lead and get to the rail if possible. I also think the :8: Seminole Chief doesn't have much choice other than to send as well as we know all too much about outside posts and their lack of winning at Gulfstream at 9F.

I still question whether :1: Frankie's Empire can get 9F and win, so I may well be set on taking the :6: Le Dom Bro to sit 4th to 6th and be one of the few with any late punch left to get the win.

I'm just watching this one. If Fierceness is outside when they change leads in the stretch, I don't like him. I hope he makes the derby field because he might make sense in that race if he gets an inside post. My only interest in this race is to see how Hades does, and to see if I can get better insight on Fierceness.

:1: Frankie's Empire to blow up the exotics

I don't know what to make of Fierceness.

I thought his first start, while impressive, was probably aided a bit by a track that was kind to speed and where some of the margins may have been exaggerated late in the day by the off track.

He had trouble multiple times and was very wide in the Champagne, but he didn't do anything to verify his first start as fully legitimate even if you are prone to throwing it out because of the trouble and the off track.

His Juvenile was fast but imo he had pretty perfect trip on that surface that day.

His Holy Bull wasn't as bad as it looks. He was bumped both sides in a race with a LOT of early bumping. That was probably part of the reason for the very slow early fractions. He was wide early getting back into the race being used more than the fractions make it appear and weakened. He's better than that.

I think he's not as good as his best races but not as bad as his worst races.

Just a note: Hades was one of the few horses that didn't get bumped at the start of the Holy Bull. That helped him get the lead in slow fractions.

Florida Derby: :10:Fierceness, :2:Hades, :5:Real Macho,

:2: HADES

:9::10: two strong chalks

:7: Catalytic in exotics.

With the bad underlay of :2:

Same 9,10 / 7 idea but toss 2

Oh well that sucked! If the :7: wouldn't have run a step I would have had the super 10 times. Question! Are the hosts on TVG stupid or are they not allowed to say certain things. Every excuse in the book was given why Fierceness ran so poorly last time. The only thing they didn't mention was Pletcher didn't have the horse ready. It was obvious to me and it should have been obvious to the so called experts on TVG. Maybe I should be a commentator. :D

Need Muth and Timberlake to run one two either order with Liberal Arts third or fourth!

Pletcher probably designed that . Face it , he’s lost a few of these types like days before or the morning of the Derby . I’m no trainer but just by observing I believe these young horses get trained too hard , too early . Nowadays there’s something assumed wrong if you don’t win every race . Why push a good thing hard the first race back . Make that first race back a glorified workout . If he loses , he loses . So what ? He’s not fully tight and the tank isn’t even filled yet but he’s not tired , past peak or hurt . All you have to do is run well in this last round , improve a little more and stay healthy . Fierceness where he is now , in a key Derby race like that . Made the competition look slow . Johnny probably only really rode him for an eighth if that . A little to make the lead , a little in the stretch . Good night Irene . Throttled down late , hands hardly moving .

Another Pletcher cream puff. If another horse doesn’t squeeze him at the start… If a horse doesn’t bother him during the race… he a world beater. Anyone want to bet that doesn’t happen in the derby at 2 to 1 be my guest. If he gets Always Dreaming’s trip he’s a winner. Then he won’t even make the super in the Preakness and Pletcher will be whining afterwards. Yawn….

Gonna be a huge figure for Fierceness. 1:35.63 at 1M was 2 seconds faster than the Fillies in the Oaks that ran 8.5F and almost 2 seconds faster than elders that ran 8.5F as well in the Ghostzapper. Looks to be the likely Derby favorite.

Pletcher had another one run yesterday in the 5th in Mindframe. Firster blitzed 7F in 1:21.72 winning by 13.5 lengths :eek:. Sat 4th early even dropping back to 6 or so lengths back in the 3 path, and launched a sustained dominating move 3 to 4 wide around the entire track walking easily to a win while not ever looking remotely close to being all out. Obviously one to watch going forward.

Beyer 110

He's obviously fast, but I'm still not sure how he's good he is.

How is he going to react in a large Derby field where he's less likely to get loose against weaker or stalk in moderate fractions with a clean trip on a track conducive to speed?

For me, the difference between horses that are fast and the very best horses is overcoming adversity (against a bias, against the pace/flow, used wide, trouble etc..) and still running fast. There are plenty of horses that run very fast when they get things their own way that can't do it when used hard against tougher competition. I'm not sure I want to bet against him enthusiastically, but I'm not fully convinced either.

If he matches that performance at Churchill Downs then it will take a very big leap amongst another contender to get the job done. Post position might be a factor for this one. Maybe just one first instead of a double for now pending results of a few big preps, two of which have not produced a winner in a long time.