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Search took 0.08 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: jfdinneen
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-06-2016, 07:39 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 14,400
Posted By jfdinneen
You're Welcome

Formula_2002,

As ever, you are very welcome.

Best wishes,

John
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-06-2016, 05:50 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 14,400
Posted By jfdinneen
Discounted Harville Example

formula_2002 / Dave,

Thank you both for the kind words on the blog.
It appears that Google deleted the original "Harville" spreadsheet from the blog some time ago, without requesting my...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 09-09-2015, 12:45 PM
Replies: 34
Views: 3,868
Posted By jfdinneen
Long-Term Profit = Clairvoyance – Race Uncertainty – Win Estimate Divergence

Cover and Thomas (2006) (http://www.amazon.com/Elements-Information-Edition-Telecommunications-Processing/dp/0471241954) show that, in a horse race, a handicapper has an expected wealth growth-rate...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 08-11-2015, 10:52 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 1,253
Posted By jfdinneen
Win Pool - Subfair Game

BetPTC / raybo,

You are most welcome.

Perhaps we can make a few more logical inferences from the data.

For instance, it would be accurate to say that, given the very high...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 08-10-2015, 11:34 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 1,253
Posted By jfdinneen
Longitudinal Study - Betting Australia

Gentlemen,

A longitudinal study (https://www.academia.edu/4976823/Betting_patterns_for_sports_and_races_A_longitudinal_analysis_of_online_wagering_in_Australia) (one year) of betting patterns...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 06-05-2015, 04:35 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,485
Posted By jfdinneen
Euro Handicapper Style

Capper Al,

As a handicapper of Euro races, I look for events in England, France, and Ireland (Grade 1 Horse-Racing Countries) with a high degree of chaos (I have entropy scores for all...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 06-05-2015, 03:15 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 1,750
Posted By jfdinneen
O'Brien Wins Oaks At 50/1

For what it is worth, not all O'Brien's winners are chalk! Today, he won the English Oaks with Qualify the 50/1 outsider catching another Irish-trained and English 1000 Guineas winner Legatissimo on...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-06-2015, 11:31 AM
Replies: 99
Views: 10,652
Posted By jfdinneen
Overlay Markets And Multiple Selections

maddog42,

When handicapping horse races, it is critical to focus on those markets in which there is at least one overlay. However, contrary to received wisdom, the professional sports trader does...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-01-2015, 04:48 PM
Replies: 48
Views: 6,141
Posted By jfdinneen
Long-Term: Log Preferences And Maximizing Expected Bankroll Growth

Delta,

You are correct that, in the long-term, expected value is the critical determinant of success which leads directly to a goal of "maximizing expected bankroll growth" and Kelly staking....
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-01-2015, 03:35 PM
Replies: 48
Views: 6,141
Posted By jfdinneen
Trailing Day Bankroll Low Threshold

big_frank,

In the context of quitting while ahead ("Early Black, Late Red"), I would recommend (even to those handicappers who do not accept session handicapping) setting a trailing day bankroll...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-18-2015, 02:08 PM
Replies: 65
Views: 6,645
Posted By jfdinneen
Better Way To Measure Handicapper Success

green80,

From one of the best online, statistical minds in the business - Better Way To Measure Handicapper Success...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 03-14-2015, 05:38 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 1,139
Posted By jfdinneen
Happy Pi Day

Wishing everyone a Happy Pi Day (3.141592653) or in calendar terms:
3/14/15 at 9:26:53 a.m. and p.m. (see Pi Day (2015) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi_Day)) matching the first ten digits of PI.
...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 10-23-2014, 10:54 AM
Replies: 83
Views: 9,422
Posted By jfdinneen
Analytical (Kelly) And Numerical (Solver) Solution

Robert,

As you already know, many mathematical problems yield to both an analytical and a numerical solution.

In this instance, the numerical solution (using Solver in Excel) to minimizing the...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-05-2014, 08:34 AM
Replies: 62
Views: 5,409
Posted By jfdinneen
David O'Meara

Grits,

David O'Meara is the best young trainer in England

John
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-05-2014, 08:22 AM
Replies: 62
Views: 5,409
Posted By jfdinneen
Top Trainers

Gentlemen,

Note that J-C Rouget and H Pantall are currently the in-form stables in France.

John
Forum: Off Topic - General 10-05-2014, 08:03 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 1,584
Posted By jfdinneen
Expected Value And Volatility Drag

Gentlemen,

Perhaps you might like to review the following posts by Aaron Brown, author of
The Poker Face Of Wall St...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-04-2014, 01:48 PM
Replies: 62
Views: 5,409
Posted By jfdinneen
The Little Emperor

Grits,

They call him Napoleon and The Little Emperor because of his short stature and military bearing but he is definitely a giant of French racing!

John
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-04-2014, 01:24 PM
Replies: 62
Views: 5,409
Posted By jfdinneen
Languages Galore!

Grits,

Though I cannot recall which year it was, the most amazing cultural moment I experienced at the Arc was when the horses hit the stretch and, in rapid succession, an Italian German French...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-04-2014, 10:23 AM
Replies: 62
Views: 5,409
Posted By jfdinneen
Japanese Horses

Joe,

I agree the annual renewal of the Arc is definitely the Race Of The Year on turf. This year, given your correct analysis of inconclusive form and the fact that many of the bigger stables in...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-04-2014, 09:42 AM
Replies: 62
Views: 5,409
Posted By jfdinneen
Racing Post PDFs

Joe,

You are absolutely right on the mark with respect to the Racing Post PDFs for Longchamp. Unfortunately, I am unable to attend this year - family commitments. Any selections on which you are...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-04-2014, 08:48 AM
Replies: 62
Views: 5,409
Posted By jfdinneen
Longchamp Form

One of the best handicapping web sites in Europe...
Racing Post (http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=611625&r_date=2014-10-04#raceTabs=sc_)

John
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-03-2014, 01:35 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 5,588
Posted By jfdinneen
Maiden Sprint Races (Min Field Size = 11)

Landsdale,



I recommend you test the hypothesis using Maiden sprint races with field sizes of at least 11 runners, assuming you can get access to a big enough sample size in any specific...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 10-01-2014, 04:00 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 5,588
Posted By jfdinneen
Critical Question

Lansdale,


That is the critical question and I do not have an immediate and definitive answer. The best hypothesis I can offer is that it requires a minimum number of runners for a truly run race...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-30-2014, 05:40 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 5,588
Posted By jfdinneen
Twenty Years Of UK Data

Lansdale,

Some time ago, I carried out a study of approximately 83,000 UK races spanning 20 years and compared the performance of favorites (1-3) with that predicted by a Benford Distribution....
Forum: General Racing Discussion 09-29-2014, 05:46 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 5,588
Posted By jfdinneen
Benfords Law And U.S. Field Size

Lansdale,

You are correct that Benford's Law does not work for U.S. racing because of the low average field size. Trifecta Mike and I have discussed this subject offline via email during which he...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 332
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