Quote:
Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate
Well, my guess is that with the proper analysis and the right tools, we're seeing changes in the wagering patterns of the whales which may introduce some opportunities for the minnows.
I interpret your data and come to the following conclusion - the whales are being pressured to generate the same profits (or greater) than in the years past. Nobody likes to see profits shrink, and the world is run by bean counters, so this is hardly surprising. The whales have adjusted to this pressure by zeroing in and hammering the most likely winners, and not dutching the wagers as equally in the past. This is my observation this year, as I've seen numerous late moves on the tote for the winning horse being crushed like a red lamper in Hong Kong.
So perhaps the trick would be to find not just the vulnerable favorite, but to find the vulnerable favorite that the whales will hammer but then run out?
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You are right on all counts.
The issue about the whales generating profit is correct. (According to my sources) they retool every winter and put it into play towards the end of January.
This year's retooling effort seems to have changed things quite a bit from my POV.
Remember that when the whales agree on who should be bet, they all lose. To be clear about that, when a track has a big day for favorites, all the whales lose money because they're betting more than just those winning favs.
IMHO, because there are so many winners who are showing up as bet downs after the gate opens, the handicapper who EXPECTS to be competitive, needs to address these issues:
1. Which horse(s) are likely to be
bet down below what they should be?
2. Which, of the
low-odds horses is a true bet against horse?
This may seem like handicapping 101 but it is actually far different than what most players do now.
As I said in one of my earlier posts, the days of just ignoring the favorites (i.e. assuming that all favorites are bad bets) and focusing on the long shots is a definite path to the poor house.
If one considers implementing those two steps I have recommended, one will find that there must be a serious change in their handicapping technique.
Notice that there is no mention of actually handicapping the race from a conventional POV. It is all about those two steps.
Example: If you look at class drops, which of those two issues does it address? Will it point to a horse that will be bet down after the gate opens? Does it point to a low-odds BIG loser (in terms of money returned)?
If it does neither of those, it serves no purpose but to obfuscate the goal.
I've not had a winning year thus far. Since I began working on this approach, based upon extensive paper play, I've become convinced that the approach is sound.
Ironically, my average prices have never been this high because a substantial number of "bet downs" are in the $9 to $18 range, with the occasional monster hit.
As I said, all this is on paper, so I still have to see how it plays out when pulling the trigger live. I don't expect it to be any different because the system is 100% automatic and there is zero use of the tote board.
Another piece of irony is that when I have introduced the actual odds (which, of course, I would never have when playing live) my results were NOT AS GOOD!
I've shared this because I know that there have to be some pretty good handicappers out there that are having a more difficult time than usual this year. Perhaps this will offer you some potential places to look for answers.
So, in my opinion, this is a new way to play.
As for how you actually do this, I will not share that. There is no new product coming, no new videos or book on this topic.
Good luck to all of you.
Dave
