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Originally Posted by raybo
Ok you stats gurus, if I have a rating derived from multiple factors, each weighted according to significance, how do I get from that final rating to a projected win probability/percentage?
Let's start with the following final ratings for a race:
#1 -- 72.65
#2 -- 101.06
#3 -- 104.32
#4 -- 87.72
#5 -- 89.90
#6 -- 10.20
#7 -- 75.89
#8 -- 79.96
#9 - 105.25
#10 - 77.95
#11 - 73.84
#12 - 69.82
How do I get from those ratings to a calculated/projected win probability/percentage? I have always thought that you just divide each rating by the sum of all the ratings, but can't seem to find anything related to this type of calculation on the web, and I haven't tried to create a line in a long time, so I'm a bit rusty.
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I have been trying to devise a method using standard deviations, but still have some snags. If you did probabilities by hand (from your numbers) what would you get? I guesstimated a probability line, but would have to see a few thousand races (with results) to see correlation with your numbers and results -> what percent of time would 2,3, or 9 win? Being able to go to the tenths would really help in lower odds horses...
#1 -- 72.65 -- 2
#2 -- 101.06 - 16
#3 -- 104.32 - 20
#4 -- 87.72 -- 9
#5 -- 89.90 -- 10
#6 -- 10.20 -- 1
#7 -- 75.89 -- 4
#8 -- 79.96 -- 6
#9 - 105.25 -- 22
#10 - 77.95 -- 5
#11 - 73.84 -- 3
#12 - 69.82 -- 2
