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Originally Posted by raybo
The example ratings are final ratings, after the weights have been applied. Many of the factors involved come directly from the raw data, jockey win and ITM percentages, trainer win and ITM percentages, horse win and ITM percentages, horse age and weight, horse power rating, horse pace and speed figures, etc.. There are a few other ratings that don't come directly from the raw data. There are 4 categories/sets of weightings, which is pretty standard to most weighted factor methods. But, there are some user preferences for several factors, and paceline selection preferences for the paceline related factors.
This method is not currently part of my Black Box, this is initially going to be a separate method, testable in batch processing mode, against any number of past races, which should help determine which factors are more important and which ones are not, also what the weightings for the final factor sets should be.
I'm looking ahead with this odds line thing, because we all know that, regardless of the accuracy of one's method, profit comes from win probability versus average price, otherwise known as "value". Sure, I could just produce the weightings method and let the user have at it, but the method will have more value to the user if there is a logical value metric included. So, I'm jumping the gun a bit via this thread, mostly because I know this portion is going to take the most time, and I want to get started now, rather than wait until the rest of the method is complete.
To answer your question, the horses, below the top 3, are not penalized at all in this method. All horses are going to receive equal treatment and live or die according to their data, and the factors and weightings each user decides to implement for each of the 4 race type categories of factor/preferences/weight settings.
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