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Originally Posted by raybo
Ok you stats gurus, if I have a rating derived from multiple factors, each weighted according to significance, how do I get from that final rating to a projected win probability/percentage?
Let's start with the following final ratings for a race:
#1 -- 72.65
#2 -- 101.06
#3 -- 104.32
#4 -- 87.72
#5 -- 89.90
#6 -- 10.20
#7 -- 75.89
#8 -- 79.96
#9 - 105.25
#10 - 77.95
#11 - 73.84
#12 - 69.82
How do I get from those ratings to a calculated/projected win probability/percentage? I have always thought that you just divide each rating by the sum of all the ratings, but can't seem to find anything related to this type of calculation on the web, and I haven't tried to create a line in a long time, so I'm a bit rusty.
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Piece of cake.
You need to establish the dollar odds for each incremental rating.
using excel, make one column your rating, another the dollar odds it ran at, and another if it won. Simply use a "1" for a win.
(make it the true dollar odds by adjusting for the total booking percentage.)
you will also need a column for accumulated returns
now sort on your rating column. if you find profits within a specific range, test with new data.
At this time, don't be concerned by race type, surface, distance etc.. the public with take care of that for you.
I do this kind of stuff all the time, that's why I don't bet!!!
If your ratings are in a dbase format with a key field for track, race number and date, you can down load the results file from Bris and have fun with "what if".
Each data file race card was 25 cents some years ago.
ps, you may want to also normalize the results for each race and perhaps add a column for that. I would
