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Old 03-12-2024, 12:32 AM   #4
capitalman
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Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 83
I use Formulator & I put in data specific to the race. For example, if it's a 1st time starter in a maiden sprint race for Arkansas breds at Oaklawn, I put 1st time starter, sprint, Use today's track, and state bred & restricted races. The problem I have is the restricted races are lumped in with the state bred races, so I have to look at the individual winning horses to see if they are Ark breds.

With jockeys, I'll plug in use today's jockey with the trainer. This is helpful if a trainer is running an uncoupled entry. I usually prefer the horse that the jockey has a significantly better record with the trainer than the other uncoupled horse.

Overall, I would never look at raw trainer or jockey win % without regard to the conditions of the race. Trainers have specific win% that vary by what the race is about. I wouldn't bet a maiden 1st time starter by looking at the overall 1st time starter without regarding the surface, distance & even the specific track. For example: Chad Brown hits with 1st time starters in turf routes at 37% at Tampa Bay Downs, but wins only 7% of 1st time starters in turf routes at Gulfstream Park.

I feel I can do a lot more with Formulator than BRIS PPs. When I use BRIS I supplement the data with more specific data from Capital OTB's website that uses the Twin Spires system.

I specialize in maiden races & I look into breeding data. BRIS does not break down the difference in win % for sprints & routes. I can't handicap without knowing what distances the sires & dams progeny won at.

I never look at ITM % except in rare circumstances.
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