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Old 04-18-2024, 10:44 AM   #64
racenomics
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Join Date: Nov 2023
Posts: 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01 View Post
That sounds true on paper but I'm not sure I buy it. I think there are too many confounding variables to prove a major stakes race once a year means anything to bettors choosing to bet a track on a random weekday.

Parx would be a good case. PA Derby day is now an "event", and it does sometimes draw top 3-year-olds. But how do you separate that from the fact that when the casino opened 15 years ago they were able to triple their daily purses? Isn't that what made people pay attention to them, the fact the quality of the racing improved and they were suddenly the best track running on an average winter or spring Monday or Tuesday afternoon? To me, it's also tough to call something a "success" when you consider that if casino revenue went away, the track would either immediately close or revert to its 20-year-ago level. Racing is fully propped up by the casino, and Parx loses money on racing overall (and Penn National even more so).

Another example would be Turfway. Racing there was once pretty dire, but track handle went up 62% (!!!) in 2022-2023 and 17% in 2023-2024. Is that because they have the $700,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks one day a year, or because they now regularly run full fields of competitive racing in the right "time slot"? I'd strongly argue the latter.
I would say its because purses tripled, in the way that parx and Penn National did, with the turfway scenario. Also due to the history of Maryland racing, it will always be “higher class” than Parx or Penn National. Another comparison could be Tampa. Due to the Tampa Bay derby, they now get much better handle and recognition for just their overnight races. They soundly beat Laurel in terms of handle despite having lower overnight purses and arguably lower quality racing
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