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FWIW I had the Remsen come up as a 7 for him and he's still working his way back to it with a 9 in the Bluegrass. Is a 7 fast? Well for me par for the Derby is between a 5 and 6 and these are developing horses so they're working towards that peak in May. Rich Strike had never done better than a 10.75 in his final prep then freaked and ran a 5.25 in the Derby. It's just going to come down to pace IMO and if he keeps moving back towards that 7.
I think where I differ with most is I have Fierceness two best races as 6's which is pretty much just Grade one par, nothing wrong with Grade one par I mean that's great but I think some others have the Florida Derby as off the charts... so when I see a horse that has a 7 like Sierra Leone and he's working his way back to it as expected then I'm not too worried about it. With that being said Sierra Leone if he only shows up with the Bluegrass 9 in the Derby then he most likely won't even run second.
IMO Epic Ride if he can get in can keep the pace honest for Sierra Leone. Not sure what his points look like.
Last edited by MJC922; 04-14-2024 at 11:32 AM.
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