Quote:
Originally Posted by bisket
Everyone looks at statistical historicals to guide their derby wagers. Many of the winners of preps this year have lugged in or out, not changed lead, or changed them multiple times in the stretch. I’ve been wagering on the derby for 45 years and I can’t remember one winner doing this in the stretch. I could be wrong, does anyone remember a winner that didn’t run professionally in the stretch? I remember a few years ago the events on the turn and we had our first disqualification. This could eliminate some of the favorites in this race.
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I don’t know the stats but as a handicapping opinion . I don’t like any stakes horses doing it . The margin for error in high stakes racing is slim . Of course, there are times you see it and the horse is just lengths better anyway . Plus, with the retirements and defections the level of competition and field size has shrunk. Once you get past the Triple Crown you can cherry pick races now . But the next race after that it’s something to be wary of if it’s a full field like the derby . Because it’s often a sign of fatigue. These horses have hardly raced so it could be green running or a combination of both . And you’re right , there was some sloppy running in a few of these final preps.
The other thing to think about is the plus 100,000 attending . Many of these horses have a handful of starts , if that horse has a nervous or discipline problem. It’s a bad combo . The DQ you are talking about cost me good . And I thought part of the problem was that horse reacted to roar of the crowd. Sometimes I think some people that are never really around horses under appreciate how easily some of them can be unnerved. It’s true in all sports , often the coolest head prevails. A horse can’t talk but human athletes will say they try to slow the game down and breathe normally. Without mentally getting worked up.
