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The question probably supposes that horse "b's" improvement came about in a vacuum. That is, with no change in distance, venue, connections, or race-shape..etc.
And to my experience, such marked improvement almost always traces to SOME ostensible factor....if even some change in circumstances that renders the improvement counterfeit.
In addition, the more consistent horse would hardly be immune from regression in its own right. And I can think of several scenarios wherein that seemingly more reliable runner might actually be the likelier to regress.
For me, it's all about context, and sadly in modern racing, the eerily prescient late money would probably interpret that context correctly and make the right favorite.
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