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Originally Posted by Capper Al
I know that some believe that their odds lines reflect true value. And odds line are fun to make. Still, an odds line is only as good as the predictive powers of the odds maker. When it's time to wager, if our goal is profit, one must be honest and realize that they are in the dark about which horse will win and what these horses are really worth. There is only one absolute truth in handicapping: Good handicapping defeats random odds. Anything else is a guess. And that's no hogwash.
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And better handicapping , with a learning component (i.e. gauging how well your methods work in order to make adjustments and actually making those adjustments)
defeats "good handicapping."
Most people just will not make the effort.
I have found that the key to finding value is to track who you toss out in a race. Ask yourself this question: "When I toss out a horse (that ultimately goes off at) below 7/2, how much do those horses lose?"
If the answer to that question is, a $net of $1.30 or less, then you should be able to throw darts in those races and break even or better because there is enough pool money to recover the takeout.
In other words, if your low odds toss outs are losing 35% per wagered dollar, you should have no problem finding value in those races.
