Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerocraft67
Fair to draw a line though the sloppy & sealed Champagne. But hard to forgive the Derby favorite for the Holy Bull. How valid was his excuse?
He won the Florida Derby going away, geared down, earning the field's best Beyer by 9. But he only needed a bit of work to break from the 8th post and lead a modest pace.
How good of a trip does Fierceness need in the Derby, and what's the likelihood he gets it?
Surely more than one will send, and other rivals in the early running will take him on. Half the field might strive for an unmolested trip in the top flight. Half of them won't get that.
You have to expect more adversity for Fierceness here. Perhaps his inability to overcome it is overblown. But his speed will get bet.
His accomplishments outweigh his disappointments in five races. The risk of dismissing him seems higher than the risk of his short price.
The post draw is a factor of course. But how far can you fade him?
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I’m a bit perplexed by those who have 2nd thoughts about Fierceness’ potentials because of 2 failed races. I can easily throw out the Champagne stakes due to the sloppy track condition which it obviously did not like. But for those of you who don’t understand how the track condition can affect a true speed horse, then please do yourself a favor and take a peek at ALL the fractions in the Holly Bull stakes. Do you believe for a minute that they were actually running on one might consider to be a “Fast” track? If you do, then you’re destined to dismiss Fierceness capabilities and resort to wishful thinking about the remaining entries. You might also want to take a look at its troubled start in that race.
Horses like this don’t come along every year, but when they do, they’re the ones that can control every aspect of a race. If they’re good enough they’ll repeatedly dust those behind them, especially when none have demonstrated any real speed.
If you can’t tell already, I’m a Fierceness fan and will be on him no matter which post position it’s in or what the track condition turns out to be. If the others want to beat him, they’ll have to try and keep up by
DRAMATICALLY improving upon their past performances.
(Has any other entry managed to run a "modest" 35 and change for a mile?). And I can't even imagine what happens if it makes an improvement over that "geared down" mile and 1/8th performance!
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