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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I have yet to see any evidence that CAWs have access to pool information not available to everyone else.
I keep seeing that assertion from others (not you), but no evidence of it.
Has anyone actually seen any evidence?
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I have not and did not want to infer that I have first hand knowledge of horizontal horse racing pool data being distributed. However, my original post highlighted that this has indeed happened in the sports fantasy wagering world as recently as 2015 which employed more recent technology in theory.
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Other than that, I see nothing wrong with using math and technology to gain a betting advantage over everyone else with access to the same information.
I hate to say this, but the fact of the matter is, there are players out there using advanced math and technological expertise to play horses that are simply better handicappers and bettors than most of us because we lack the expertise to develop the same tools. That puts them in the same position as expert speed and trip handicappers a few decades ago. Should we have barred or limited them?
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There is a difference here that is important.
Speed and trip handicappers were accessing the identical data (past performances, video replays) available to all and built a better calculator to evaluate that data.
My concern about the programmed-CAW work is that the real-time API available gives pool information that is not 30-second or 60-second sampled, but real-time. Every 200 milliseconds, give me the new pool totals. The velocity can be calculated which the average gambler cannot do with a TV monitor or even a digital browser display.
If I can be permitted to use a Wall Street example, allowing CAWs to see the transactions (bets) in real-time is similar to the payment for order flow issue with Robinhood from 2021. Yes, Robinhood clients were getting zero cost transactions, however the firms that bought the order flow could front run trades, getting a better price for themselves and therefore impacting Robinhood's clients. Here, the CAW knows where "bad money" is being bet and can exploit that situation quickly even in a parimutuel setting, before the average bettor knew the situation existed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
You can either try to compete with them or quit. All I want is the same information and access. If they are so much smarter and better than me at developing tools etc.. that it's hopeless, I'll raise the white flag.
It's on the industry to figure out a solution to the problem of betting markets that are so efficient, serious and semi serious players are dropping out. If all that's left is the CAWs, the game is over.
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Per my earlier analysis, with 20% of total handle for Delmar being CAW based, we are not at the terminal point as yet, but you could see that outcome if their percentage (not just handle, but percentage of total handle) continues to grow.
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
IMO, that solution is not as easy as it sounds unless you believe barring the best players or taking away their math and computer advantages is philosophically OK and will help grow the handle. I'm not OK with that. I'm not even sure I'm philosophically OK with barring their late Win bets even though it helps me personally and is very popular among players like us.
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I am absolutely fine with barring players in the final X minutes of any pool is their decision making is driven by raw data not available to all. If there is an advantage in data access, that is not called a level playing field and borders on insider information.
