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Originally Posted by AndyC
Which horses will the stupid money be backing? Knowing that stupid money will create good betting opportunities for smart money, wouldn't the smart money increase dramatically to suck up all of the stupidity?
Big races usually bring more confusion. Not knowing whether or not a shipper will like the surface. Distance questions. Ambiguous pace scenarios. Etc., etc. For most of us, our money is also stupid. The good news is that confusion also brings opportunity. If for just one magical race a handicapper can cut through the fog of the confusion they will generally be rewarded with a good payoff. The attraction of such races to handicappers is hard to resist.
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The stupid money I was referring to in big races like the Derby is that bet by people who know nothing about racing so they bet the horse with a pretty name or their daughters age.
The other kind of foolish money is that bet those that don't know how to use stats and believe in "race specific" handicapping. This creates betting opportunities for those who know what they're doing.
Yes BC races are very contentious with a lot of unknowns, but avoiding invalid theories makes them more predictable.
