Here is a slightly more detailed write up on this wager from Blood Horse.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...by-three-wager
The new wager, called the "Three by Three," tasks the bettor with selecting the top three finishers in three separate races in precise order. Offered in $1 denominations, it would offer a carryover of a "major share" if there is no winner, with five "minor shares" offered for those selecting eight correct horses, seven horses, and down the line.
Though takeout for the wager is high at 22%, Daruty said, "We believe the effective takeout for the retail player will be lower than that given various guarantees. For example, the major pool will be guaranteed at $10,000 every day."
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So they are going to guarantee the pool at $10,000, which means they aren't expecting much action on it (nor do I). The major share would thus become a carryover for the next day if nobody hits. They will pay diminishing amounts to for 8/7/6/5/4 winners or lower if nobody gets 8 winners.
From my point of view the chances on most days will be pretty tiny of hitting all three trifectas. So basically you are investing money into a 22% takeout pool in which you have a tiny chance of hitting major prize. Sounds worse than the rainbow six (on a no carryover day) to me. I don't even know if they how they are planning to split up the pool. Takeout 22%. Of the remaining 78% I guess it might be something like
50%+ carryover (either to those who hit the 3 trifectas or carryovered to the next day).
20% to those who hit the most number of winners
15% to those who hit the next most
10% to those who hit the next most
5% to those who hit the next most
Assuming that is what they go with if nobody hits the top prize, 22% goes to takeout and 50% of what is left goes to carryover. Thus 22% takeout, 39% to carryover and 39% of the pool is split among the top performers. So fail to hit 9 of 9 (3 straight trifectas) and you get your cut of 39% of the pool. I guess over time carryovers will become larger, more money will get bet, but once again, if you don't hit the top prize, you are shooting for very little. Obviously if you can hit the 3 trifectas perfectly and you have a nice carryover you have a chance to hit a nice payout. Thus it is sort of like a pyramid scheme, only the other direction. In a pyramid scheme the folks who get in early get rich and those who get in late feed them. In this wager those who bet before the carryover becomes huge are feeding those who hit when it is finally brought down when the carryover is huge. But unlike a pyramid scheme, instead of a lot of people getting "rich", chances are with this you will have 1 or 2 people hitting when the pool is brought down (barring a very chalky 3 race sequence). So it is also like a lottery. My assumption is they will use the sequences which include very tough turf races so they can build big carryovers over time and also make it virtually impossible for you to hit in the early stages.
Now the the thing is if the carryover does become huge, there is no way they will keep the caw out. They might not get their rebates but they will attack it and they have the capital to actually scoop up all the money that the suckers donate to them over time via an ever growing carryover. But even if the caw doesn't scoop it (they obey orders), somebody with money will. If you play a $36 ticket on a Rainbow Six mandatory you actually have a chance (obviously a small one-but that is equivalent of a 360 ticket on the old $2 pick 6) to collect. You put 36 into this and you are cold decking one triftecta and parlaying it to either two 3 horse boxes or keys. Good luck with that.
This is exactly what they should not be doing. But the "smart" people are in charge, so who am I to rain on their parade.
