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[classhandicapper]

I leave the odds analysis separate from the flow metrics.

The public will adjust the odds based on the expected flow. So maybe those 8-1 or 10-1 or even 15-1 speed horses that didn't last on the pace were actually very good horses. They just went off longer because the public expected them to get outrun or burnt out by a fast pace and they did.

IMO, if you want to do this right you start by looking at the makeup of the field before the race is even run. You want to know how much speed is in the race and the quality of that speed.

Then you watch the race, especially the start, to see who was bumped, who was urged, who was hard held etc. That way you know if and why the race may or may not have developed as you expected.

Then you want to look at BOTH the pace figures and good quality flow metrics that compare the flow to what's typical for that surface/distance.

You need both because flow captures things that pace figures alone won't capture (number of horses engaged and how hard they were being used, short intense moves, track bias impacting the normal pace relationships, quality of horses impacting the normal pace relationships, changing track conditions etc.. ) Also, fractions/pace figures are even more prone to error than final time figures due to wind, various sections of the track not being the same and horses rating.

However, you also want to look at the pace figures, especially in races where it's less clear from pre race analysis and race watching what happened. They will help clarify what you saw and give you better grasp of how extreme things might have been.

If you do all that, you are going to have a pretty firm grip on reality for most races, but you will also wind up like me where you spend so much time trying to be right about certain races, you are going to have to narrow your play because there's not a lot of time for handicapping. I focus mostly on stakes quality dirt races around the country and the very best turf races. I could never do all this for an entire circuit and especially not multiple circuits.

I'd be happy to post a screen shot of my PPs where most of this info in located right in my Formulator notes.