Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Beyer 110
He's obviously fast, but I'm still not sure how he's good he is.
How is he going to react in a large Derby field where he's less likely to get loose against weaker or stalk in moderate fractions with a clean trip on a track conducive to speed?
For me, the difference between horses that are fast and the very best horses is overcoming adversity (against a bias, against the pace/flow, used wide, trouble etc..) and still running fast. There are plenty of horses that run very fast when they get things their own way that can't do it when used hard against tougher competition. I'm not sure I want to bet against him enthusiastically, but I'm not fully convinced either.
|
FWIW, I have it basically at 6.25 now which pairs up with his 6 in the BC. Very solid number no doubt about it but with Grade one par at 5.5-ish it's giving you a really good idea of what's behind him. That lot probably need not bother.
If I recall I had Forte pretty much string together 6's in like 3 straight races and then put up a 7 in FlaDerby. I couldn't really pick against him with that line going into KyDerby but scratched out anyway. Prob best as I think Mage might have moved forward to a 5.
Muth is actually stringing together 9s by comparison with the 8 as a top in his third start, Bob will hit next level though, just when you think you have him pegged he'll hang up a 5 or a 6.
