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Originally Posted by raybo
Obviously, at least to me, if the ratings are fairly accurate, then the top 3 horses should win about 60% of the time, over time. Your line has them at 58%, that's very close. Based on that, how did you differentiate between those 3 horses to get their portion of the 58% total probability? It appears that the relationships are not linear, but I haven't a clue as to how to come up with that non-linear scale/slope.
This set of numbers seems promising, regarding the separation/relationship between the 3 ratings. I found the average and then subtracted the 3 ratings from that average.
#2 _ -2.483333333
#3 _ 0.776666667
#9 _ 1.706666667
Based on those numbers this is what the probabilities percentage would be:
16.85
20.11
21.04
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I wish I could say I had a formula you could put into a spreadsheet, but I do not. I did it by hand estimation. There is a chapter in an old classic -> The Odds on your Side by Mark Cramer that tells how to fine tune your own probability line (not to be confused with a morning line which is usually 115-120% to account for track take and estimate of closing odds) to bring it too 100%.
I have a problem with the numbers below the average - what do you do with the 10 in your example, almost a -3 standard deviation.
I have been thinking about this off and on for awhile, as I would like to be able to put the Bris Prime Power ratings into a probability line.
