Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Dave,
Interesting idea on the Reliability Index.
On purses, another factor is training costs. It sometimes makes sense to run at a track with slightly lower purses if the cost to train is lower by a greater amount. I once tried to build an adjusted purse table to help me with shippers, but it was very difficult to find "average daily training" rates for many tracks.
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Not sure how this functions into the trainers at smaller tracks.
Wouldn't HIGHER "training costs" mean that they get to charge more?
My statistical experience says that many smaller tracks are dominated by trainers that live locally. The smaller the track, the more likely that is.
BTW, an interesting statistic is that PEDIGREE STATS are most useful at... wait for it...
- very small tracks
- not FTS
- non-maiden
- OLDER CLAIMERS!
Yes, I know this sounds nuts, but the final requirement explains it all.
My theory is that the best (or maybe top 2), have got friends at bigger tracks.
I envision their friend at (say) SA or GP has a horse that just cannot cut it. Has been a maiden for a long time or simply needs to run at like $5k.
The SA trainer calls his old buddy and says, "I've got a 4-yr old for you."
Open to suggestions on a better explanation but the data is solid.
.
