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Most Morning Lines are just Wrong
Forget the fact that most handicapper's prime numbers hit around 30%, some more and some less. Forget that the lines need to be split into two, one for the winning contenders and one for the in the money contenders. Most have been seduced into to believe their numbers are it= a reflection of reality, not something that their top number just hits a winner one out of about three times with no other correlation to reality.
What most do is add up their scores. Divide each horse's score by the sum to determine the probability of each horse according to their total score for the probability. And then convert their probability into odds by subtracting one. What a shame. They still haven't caught on to the game. It's not numbers, it's contenders and separating contenders.
One has to pick 80% contenders or better over the long haul. One does need their 30% or so winners, but this isn't the true odds. Why? I know you're baffled by now. What's this crazy guy talking about? And frankly, I'm amazed that people will think this way. Most that have made an odds line probably tried it out for value against post time odds and lost money, but you're thinking what I'm saying is crazy. If you so believe your math to be fundamental, then why are you losing when you play it against the post time odds? And I can hear the excuses now. -- The odds change too much in the last minute. That's a small cost. Your line should be able to cover this within reason.
Let's see if anyone else has a different way to make an odds line before I pipe in with a solution? I'll be surprised if we get one alternative.
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"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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