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Originally Posted by headhawg
raybo,
Have you ever read the Four Quarters of Horse Investing by Steve Fierro? I think that trying to assign a "fair" oddsline to more than four or five horses is just folly. If you read his book you will understand what I mean. I'm not trying to diminish what you're attempting, but I think that fair odds becomes nearly impossible to do with any accuracy once the projected win probabilities fall below a certain percentage.
Good luck
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I have not read Fiero's book, but I've heard that one should only consider "actual" win contenders. While that's probably true, it doesn't address my problem, that being assigning win probabilities and their associated decimal odds to all horses in the race. There must be a way to scale the ratings in order to obtain more realistic probabilities and odds.
Sure, it would be easy to consider only those horses with at least a 10% probability, regarding assigning odds, however, there can be horses below that 10% that are decent bets, especially when you consider the price you're likely to get. Lots of people have automated methods of assigning realistic odds to every horse in a race. I guess that is my real question, how do they do it, without ending up with something unrealistic like this example?
I mean, really, in my example, there is a horse with a 105 rating, another with a 104, and another with a 101, with the next one way down at 89. And yet, all 4 of those top horses are only a couple of percentage points apart. The spread should be larger than that, IMO.
