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But, the odds those probabilities result in are not logical. They range from 8/1 to 13/1, except for the #6 horse who gets 92/1 odds.
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They are "logical."
The issue is that your numbers do not scale as the tote board does. They are "flat."
As an example, suppose you are building probabilities based upon speed ratings where every horse is in the range of 90-100. The difference from top to bottom is only 10 points. When you graph the horses you get a lightly sloping line or curve.
If you think about it, you don't actually want the speed ratings. You want something that represents how the speed ratings translate into win percentages or impact values.
In other words, you want to ask (and answer) such questions as "How does a horse 3 points below the top horse in the field perform?" (Or 5 points or 8 points, or 17 points.) There are more creative ways to express this but I was trying to keep it simple.
Tagging factors with weighted values is not an easy task.
You need to go back and question your original weighting system.
As a long-standing member on PA, I respect your many contributions. If you'd care to contact me, I'd be willing to spend some time with you in an online meeting and work through some of this stuff and help any way I can.
Just email me.
Dave
