I agree with Dave's response which is the reason I asked "how accurate are your ratings". Maybe instead of calculating probabilities based on the ratings, approach it as Dave suggested.
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
... If you think about it, you don't actually want the speed ratings. You want something that represents how the speed ratings translate into win percentages or impact values.
In other words, you want to ask (and answer) such questions as "How does a horse 3 points below the top horse in the field perform?" (Or 5 points or 8 points, or 17 points.) There are more creative ways to express this but I was trying to keep it simple. ...
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