Damn, do I love this race. The public is going to make it a three horse race with the other seven most likely double digit odds. Muth will be 7-5, Timberlake 9-5 and Mystik Dan 3-1. There is one huge question that everyone will have to answer with confidence, if not, then it would be wise to pass the race. What is Mystik Dan going to do off that monster win on the sealed, muddy track. Is he going to back it up on a fast track Saturday or was the mud the only reason he ran off like Secretariat. Muth and Timberlake are going to run their race and look nearly impossible to keep out of the trifecta.
Will Take It 50-1 ML He went off 42-1 in a maiden race last time and lost. Easy TOSS
Timberlake 9-5 ML Great return race and should improve again. Problem is Muth is going to get the jump on him and he lost to him in the BC Juvenile. Can easily win the race and stamp himself as the favorite or second choice in the Derby.
Dimatic 20-1 ML His Rebel wasn't as bad as it looks. He beat over half the field and improved his Brisnet number once again. He beat Just Steel by three lengths. Has an outside chance of rounding out the super.
Time for Truth 20-1 ML Some may like this horse but I don't. His Brisnet figures are going the wrong direction, 96 88 84. He may be on the lead so that is a plus unless Muth wants it and in that circumstance he will probably run last or second last. PASS
Liberal Arts 15-1 ML I was shocked to see his ML so high, I thought it would be 8-1 which is what I think he goes off at, maybe 10-1 but not 15-1. Six for six in the money so he always runs well. What stands out is that his race after over a three month layoff was equal to his G3 win Brisnet wise. That should mean another big step forward today. New jock change to Tyler! I see him finishing anywhere from potentially second to fourth. Hard to see him totally out of the super. Looks solid!
Informed Patriot 30-1 ML He lost by a few lengths to a non winner of one CA bred in the Sunland Derby. He has no late kick and hard to recommend off that last clunker. TOSS
Muth 8-5 ML In Baffert we trust! He will have the horse ready off the layoff. Always bet and has the option of going to the front or sitting off the
. He gets my top selection based on the set up off the race.
Just Steel 15-1 ML This is going to be his 11th race since last June without a break. I give Lukas credit for staying old school and running horses like they were meant to. To like him you have to really claim the five wide both turns was the culprit last time. I see him closer to the pace this time, a prime stalking trip behind the
and
. Has a shot at the back end of the trifecta with a top race and have to use in the super.
Mystik Dan 5-2 ML I am going to come right out and say it, I believe the muddy track was the reason he ran so well and he is going to regress big time on the fast track. He fell apart twice going a mile or longer on the fast track and I see it again this time. I don't think he is that good and the distance is a question mark the longer he goes. Don't like him!
Imperial Gun 30-1 ML Ran a distant fourth at 4-5 in a NW1 allowance. He doesn't belong in the race. Easy TOSS
My selections are
Should be a fun race between Muth and Timberlake!
