Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
you could consider him an "all or nothing" horse.
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This was indeed my initial thinking. Or some kind of "saver" usage.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bisket
I think he’s most likely to finish anywhere from 2nd to 4th. That seems to be where he ends up if he gets bothered a little during the race. He finishes evenly.
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This aligns with my subsequent (over) thinking. Maybe both "win" and "out of the money" scenarios get overbet, rendering the best slots for Fierceness underneath. Bisket offers a logical case for that. The Derby favorite has indeed finished in the money under longshots the past several years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned
No way in Hades am I including a horse this volatile in what will be the toughest race of his life at what I see to be ridiculously short odds.
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I see what you did there. Can’t argue with taking a stand. Especially against the favorite.
I don’t want to talk myself into boxing the favorite. I also don’t want to miss a clever shot on top because I bet against the chalk underneath. Like last year.
How’s this: Fierceness encounters adversity but runs well behind some mid-tier shot that gets the ideal trip with a big improvement to win.
We’ll see about that shot once the proper handicapping starts.
