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Originally Posted by davew
I wish I could say I had a formula you could put into a spreadsheet, but I do not. I did it by hand estimation. There is a chapter in an old classic -> The Odds on your Side by Mark Cramer that tells how to fine tune your own probability line (not to be confused with a morning line which is usually 115-120% to account for track take and estimate of closing odds) to bring it too 100%.
I have a problem with the numbers below the average - what do you do with the 10 in your example, almost a -3 standard deviation.
I have been thinking about this off and on for awhile, as I would like to be able to put the Bris Prime Power ratings into a probability line.
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Well, we have, or can obtain, the long term probabilities (hit rates) for individual rankings (by field size probably), and also probabilities (hit rates) for groups of congruent rankings, like top ranked, top 2, top 3, top 4, etc., so I believe there must be a way to use those long term group probabilities to get a better handle on what type of separation, between assigned odds, there should be, in different categories of race types and fields.
Don't have any proof of the above, but I think it's worth exploring anyway.
If it doesn't pan out, there is always the ability to test different sets of factors and their scalings, as well as the odds produced by the probabilities. So, what I envision is not just a method that the user can use to select contenders, but more importantly, the ability to test and research the whole ball of wax, without having to pay large amounts of money for a traditional programming language app or traditional database app. It'll take longer in Excel, but it'll be so much simpler for the user, because of the extremely flat learning curve of an automated Excel application.
