Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
People tend to over bet what I call "wining horses" but imo aggressively trying to beat them is not typically the best idea either.
If speed figures measured ability accurately, there would be no issue. But races are not sprints where everyone is doing their best start to finish or maybe more importantly equally exhausted at the wire.
Races develop with horses rating and just trying to get into preferred positions. Then they do their best late. When the race is over, they have different amounts of energy left. That means each could/would have run a "little" faster or slower than they did with an altered pace.
Horses with terrific win records are generally signaling they are a little more competitive and have had a little more in the tank at the end of their races than the figure alone can capture even if it was driving finish. So to bet against a horse like that I think you have to account for the fact that some can probably run a 1/5th or 2/5th faster if in a more competitive situation and asked for more.
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I think it was Creme de La Fete that first started making me aware of this. I had my own figures for NY back then and tried to beat him a number of times when he was going well, but he always had a little extra left and beat me.
