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Thread: Arkansas Derby
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Old 03-29-2024, 02:29 PM   #4
PalaceOfFortLarned
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Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,171
Looking at this race and field, what really sticks out is the late pace figs for Timberlake. He absolutely towers over this field with his late pace figs for a horse that has ran against the toughest competition and races to date with solid success. Thus, essentially the entire field has to be feeling almost forced to get early position because they simply aren't passing him late.

Muth is the other top end contender. He only has 1 race as a 3YO under his belt, and that was 7F in the G2 San Vicente. Since that January 3YO beau, he has been pushing out a fair amount of works including his last 3 works at 6F. Undoubtedly Baffert has been building stamina into this one, and I have little doubt he is sending forward to be on or very near the lead making sure to be in front of his main rival in Timberlake and his powerful late punch.

I'm seeing at least the , , , and all also needing to be full send to have any shot in here.

Mystik Dan will take some $ as well. Obviously the romp in the slop has to prick one's ears as to how good it really was, and the need to see a lot more than that single race in which sloppy tracks often times carry horses well beyond their talent. However, that race also saw a change in his racing style as he sat back and came with one run. Is he now a mid-pack closer with first run on the leaders? Likely to punt, but certainly won't be surprised to see him in the Ex.

Only other one I see worth mentioning is the Liberal Arts. Like everyone else, I don't think we've seen near the best of this guy, and with this being his 2nd outing as a 3YO with a strong work tab coming in, I'm thinking we get his very best race to date. Will it be good enough? And will the price be worth it to find out?

Maybe see if I can get the to clunk up in the Tri with either the or not finishing in the EX somehow? straight Tri?
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