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Originally Posted by RXB
I was going to note that the bounce theory doesn't really hold up for the Derby-Preakness move because I had checked earlier and found that of the past 50 Preakness runnings, the Derby winner had won 18 or 19 (depending on whether or not you include the controversial Derby "win" by Forward Pass).
Out of curiosity, I checked to see how the second-place Derby finishers had done in the Preakness. 34 of the 50 most recent Derby runners-up ran in the Preakness. Interesting results: 22 of the 34 finished in the money-- but only 2 wins compared to 12 seconds and 8 thirds.
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Slight change to the runners-up numbers as I missed one
Preakness returner and accidentally placed one
Preakness show horse as a place horse. Anyway, here are the stats of Derby in-the-money horses returning in the
Preakness over the past 50 years:
Derby winners: 47/19-10-6 (40% wins, 74% ITM)
Runners-up: 35/ 2-11-9 (6% wins, 63% ITM)
3rd finishers: 37/ 8-5-8 (22% wins, 57% ITM)
2nd/3rd combined: 72/10-16-17 (14% wins, 60% ITM)
Derby form holds up pretty well overall, and there's a definite tendency for these horses to repeat their Derby finish position in the
Preakness. It even holds for the Derby fourth finishers (only 18 of the last 50 ran in the
Preakness; 5 of them finished fourth).
