And The Winer Was…

[omar2]

Read my pre and post race comments under and the winner is…

My original take on the 8 was right as he ran dead last. I let the sheets #’s change my opinion on him while with the 17 I didn’t believe he would bounce. I still think he hurt himself during his early run. It works both ways but that’s why I’ll do my own form analysis. I really don’t need “numbers”. But since I get them for certain races like the triple crown & breeders cup races, I’ll consider them too. The 11 ran to his double 1 pattern as well as the 3 who sported that “0” two back.
When I open my computer later I’ll show you the importance of using the correct pace line on a horse when I show U the 9th race at CD in this thread. I only purchased the sheet numbers for race 12. Like any numbers, if all u do is look at numbers without analyzing the running lines on a horse and I mean all the running lines, then you’re going to miss the big picture. If you rely on the computer to give you the winner then you’re in big trouble. I typed pace line on my phone and it changes it to Pauline!

[omar2]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a...1&d=1714931969

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a...1&d=1714931969

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a...1&d=1714932241

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a...1&d=1714931969

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a...1&d=1714931969

[wiretowire68]

That is the great thing or the hard thing in software handicapping is to trust the information and forget the price.. the price actually sometimes scares you away. 47-1, MP would have had this but I backed off on Valuecapper because it was considered Hard race or the anti-value. And it also the best thing about the Derby Day is great horses get forgotten and others because of their are so many first time players or once a year people putting bets down on the fav. etc. that horses just drift up. Best days for those who look for value Derby, BC.. I had Mystik Dan boxed with Sierra Leone and Fierceness in all my bets. Now if he runs in the Preakness.. he probably ends up second choice to Muth.

[wiretowire68]

In Valuecapper which uses both Black Magic in the software. Trikari based on your photos.. in terms of aberrency and your settings. Trikary was on top of the line or did you base the run/style of the E on top. In my version, based on MP's settings.. Trikary dead last bottom. #4 Formidable Man top of the line with # 7 Stay Hot. as Fulcrum. I was just curious what settings you are on in my preferences.. because Trickari show First Call, Accupressure.. Need to Lead.. now he I believe Rispoli just sat off the pace and then angled out and kicked late to Win.. and Formidable almost went all the way.. I played Formidable in a small exacta but did not use Tricari, I am leery sometimes of using Fulcrum on Grass Races but I decided to here because pace does not really collapse at Churchill on the grass in the spring.

[omar2]

Headhawg, I read your posts. You’re just wasting your time. Go ahead and knock yourselves out.

[wiretowire68]

wondering why you did not answer my question regarding Trickari being on top of the line???? This is how Valuecapper and my version spit it out??? Maybe your track profiles are different in terms of Race # 9.[ATTACH]Screenshot 2024-05-06 155435.png

Screenshot 2024-05-06 155655.png

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[Speed Figure]

On Omar's photos he's using last race.

[omar2]

Headhawg, I read your posts. You’re just wasting your time. Go ahead and knock yourselves out.

[headhawg]

You must have knocked yourself out, Omar. You posted the same exact thing twice -- and both times in the wrong thread. Your mental acuity is coming under question.

[omar2]

W – W
You have to understand that the numbers and VC and BM are some what different. Next whatever VC tells u, u must check it out. I did not consider it a hard race because that’s the way he runs, so far. Next, all turf races are skewed to the late side by design in VC. So u have to make an adjustment when necessary. My setup said neutral/unknown but look at acupressure. The 2 is a need to lead. Has a big lead in first call and 2nd to the 4 at 2nd call. Now look at PP, has a 7 length lead over the 4. So it really looks like this race sets up early. But because of his late energy #’s I made the bias Neutral.
When picking the pace lines I always try for same surface/distance when available and as close to the profile as possible. Used 2nd line on the 2, last on the 4.

[wiretowire68]

Thanks for your explanation. I also noticed that if a person could narrow down just the R/S points which if I remember correctly are speed points? Formidable and Trickari rank 1/2.. man would have love to have had that exacta for even a buck.


Do you keep MP's preferences or do you change them up depending on the race in my preferences. I believe racing has changed that certain trainers obviously have much better horses when it comes to Layoff and Anti-Value. So I have my layoff checking on.. I will use turf lines to a dirt or vice/versa when a horse is doing so stretching out off two sprints. If you do not mind Omar. if I pick your brain.. I have not watched the course in awhile and MP was very strict in his not clicking around but I never believed in that unless you are huge bankroll player.

I also believe in a Full Variant because I still believe that it does affect the track bias particularly when horses ship and drop. or have faced Reversers or have faced tougher competition.

[wiretowire68]

Omar.. I think you do have to look at how the track is playing or know the track your playing based on past results from the start of the meet and even Churchill and even with new turf. I have seen more EP types or P types win on the grass via bias as oppose to S types because it holds it speed pretty well and it seems with them finally getting the ground properly done as opposed to the problems they encounter two years ago.

I think the NBC girl who interviews after the race.. she walked the turf and gave great insight that surface was solid and her shoes did not sink to far so it was really firm but with good grip for push..

[omar2]

Are u reading my posts?

Creating a track profile is easy. You don’t need to go back two years or three years. All you need to do is get enough data for the last 20 races consisting of first call position-first call beaten lengths, second call position, second call beaten lengths. Either %E or %MED or both. That’s your starting point and you can build from there.
eg. GP 1 mile turf. You need late energy (49%) but should be within 2.5 lengths at both calls. Every once in a while you’ll get an outlier but aside from that it won’t change.
You can keep a profile for each track condition too. Sometimes it matters, sometimes not.
But more importantly KNOW THY TRACKS. Know how they play.
I can step into a meet when it opens because I know how the track plays. For example when OP opens , I don’t need to wait to see how the track plays- I know. OP is a sustained track period. Deep closers win there especially at 6f, whereas at KEE if you’re not within 4 lengths at any distance then you’re in trouble. And sometimes even less. Good jockeys know how to position their horses at each track if they ride on a regular basis.
And tracks don’t change unless they resurface the whole track. OP hasn’t changed for at least 40-45 years. Track runs the same every year even when it’s weather changes.
As far as the pace of the race sets up it’s like this. It has to be an extreme case and even then the track follows the profile. Yesterday at GP7 even though the 6 looked like the only speed, horses energy was too early for the way that distance -surface plays. (late energy).
Hope this helps.

[omar2]

Go back to 12/10/22 at OP. Look at the full charts for that day. Then check out the OP profile at the distance/ sloppy. R4, Big Business is the only horse to win from dead last. On a fast track he closes too. Dollars to donuts this horse loves the slop and OP. U can look up the horse, go to results and check the charts when he wins. All the other horses followed the profile on Opening Day!
Learn how to use your program to your advantage.

[omar2]

I noticed your program is set to OPM, mine is set to Last race and set program to classic black magic. Work off that screen. VC screen only uses opm unless you double click the individual pace line on every horse.
Watch all the Inner Secrets videos + VC Academy #9. And then re-watch them again.
And if the last race doesn’t make sense then go back one race at a time. If you find yourself going back to much or too far then either the horse is probably not a true contender. Go back if the line is really not ratable (surface-distance-class-layoff -%E is too early or late for profile -r/s is wrong).