all deep closers are dicey picks in the KD

[boys at tosconova]

most peoples top 5 will include the top 3 in order

fierceness
sierra
freedom

then you'll see a combo of the horses right below these on paper for the most part. starting with touch. there seems to be a distinct pecking order from the likes i haven't seen this year.

i'm not talking about dart throwers trying to hit a 1K exacta. i'm talking about legitimately handicapping the race and the outcome derived from it.

i'll say it again. the closer that runs well in this race isn't usually the one you think will.

[boys at tosconova]

so if sierra and freedom get messed up who will it be coming from the back.

marie seems logical. but after him it's messy

resil?, endlessly?, catalytic? dan?, brown's very slow other horse?

plus you have over 10 horses in this race that don't look like they have that much of a chance on paper.

[Fightingirish51195]

I actually kind of like domestic product.

That being said I think sierra is a better horse than freedom.

Like I think for freedom to win, he needs a good trip while sierra needs a bad one. Sierra seems almost like a car. Reminds me of afleet alex. More likely to overcome trouble.

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

so if sierra and freedom get messed up who will it be coming from the back.
marie seems logical. but after him it's messy
resil?, endlessly?, catalytic? dan?, brown's very slow other horse?

I covered this in the other thread, but you really don't have certified closers outside of . Which attracts them more money.

Maybe add Society Man to the list? Can't see any other reason to play him. I didn't even see and as late running candidates.

[QUOTE=Aerocraft67;2942417]

[MJC922]

From the inside post I can only see him taking back to last and then tipping outside heading into the backstretch to begin a sustained run widest of all. This is usually only a golden trip with a big first quarter and half but since it's ten furlongs maybe shift that thought to a big first half and three quarters. If he gets that kind of pace help he's going to be tough IMO. If not it gets a lot more complicated. With no pace help he'd have to be kept within closer range and pick his way through traffic, possible but I'd rather have the former scenario if my money is on him. I dunno... I don't know how else to play the race, if I own the horse I don't even know what game plan to bring. Just let the kid ride him I guess. If I were more sure about the right pace pressure occurring at the right time I'd be more confident in taking all the way back. I wanted Epic Ride to be in the race for that reason, doesn't look like it's going to happen, correct? So a much smaller bet is probably in order for me. It's dicey as you said, I may go with a modest bet to win and place just because it's the Derby.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

so if sierra and freedom get messed up who will it be coming from the back.

There's not many 96+ Brisnet LP horses this year. If those two don't fire then we are down to just a few. I'm not 100% convinced Fieceness is a true E8 "need the lead" type and can envision this one pressing. His LP was 113. Resilience was a 98, Honor Marie and Just Steel 96. Domestic Product has a 125 but had snail fractions. It's presumed Forever Young would meet the threshold as well.

May take is if Fierceness fails to fire and Sierra doesn't get the trip then it's a pretty wide open race subject to Giacomo tote explosion.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by MJC922

From the inside post I can only see him taking back to last and then tipping outside heading into the backstretch to begin a sustained run widest of all. This is usually only a golden trip with a big first quarter and half but since it's ten furlongs maybe shift that thought to a big first half and three quarters. If he gets that kind of pace help he's going to be tough IMO. If not it gets a lot more complicated. With no pace help he'd have to be kept within closer range and pick his way through traffic, possible but I'd rather have the former scenario if my money is on him. I dunno... I don't know how else to play the race, if I own the horse I don't even know what game plan to bring. Just let the kid ride him I guess. If I were more sure about the right pace pressure occurring at the right time I'd be more confident in taking all the way back. I wanted Epic Ride to be in the race for that reason, doesn't look like it's going to happen, correct? So a much smaller bet is probably in order for me. It's dicey as you said, I may go with a modest bet to win and place just because it's the Derby.

sierra has to be 15th/20th for half of the race. that pretty much seems like a lock

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

There's not many 96+ Brisnet LP horses this year. If those two don't fire then we are down to just a few. I'm not 100% convinced Fieceness is a true E8 "need the lead" type and can envision this one pressing. His LP was 113. Resilience was a 98, Honor Marie and Just Steel 96. Domestic Product has a 125 but had snail fractions. It's presumed Forever Young would meet the threshold as well.

May take is if Fierceness fails to fire and Sierra doesn't get the trip then it's a pretty wide open race subject to Giacomo tote explosion.

i'm not going there. pecking order doesn't seem that difficult. i have a poor view of many horses this year.

the ink is black and the page is white.

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by MJC922

From the inside post I can only see him taking back to last and then tipping outside heading into the backstretch to begin a sustained run widest of all. This is usually only a golden trip with a big first quarter and half but since it's ten furlongs maybe shift that thought to a big first half and three quarters. If he gets that kind of pace help he's going to be tough IMO. If not it gets a lot more complicated. With no pace help he'd have to be kept within closer range and pick his way through traffic, possible but I'd rather have the former scenario if my money is on him.
...
If I were more sure about the right pace pressure occurring at the right time I'd be more confident in taking all the way back. I wanted Epic Ride to be in the race for that reason

You got your wish. But it aggravates the contention that late pace gets overbet.

I guess you accept the inevitably low odds on a legitimate win contender and hope others take enough money to make Sierra Leone palatable.

Maybe lean more on Catching Freedom? He did pass all 10 rivals in the Louisiana Derby (including Honor Marie). Despite that last-to-first performance, he's projected to have a little more early run than and . That could hedge his chances to get a more favorable position.

Second best late is probably the , but he's just not as good as and , and doesn't have any upside advantage. I just don't want to add money to the third backup plan.

Beyond that, what, Endlessly? At least he'll be a better price than Mystik Dan. By the time you get to Domestic Product (not to mention Society Man), I'd rather just take my chances with the stronger trackers.

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by MJC922

From the inside post I can only see him taking back to last and then tipping outside heading into the backstretch to begin a sustained run widest of all.

Didn't Calvin Borel make a career out of biding his time, then running up the rail and passing everyone as they tired? Surely he is not the only jockey capable of this...

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

You got your wish. But it aggravates the contention that late pace gets overbet.

I guess you accept the inevitably low odds on a legitimate win contender and hope others take enough money to make Sierra Leone palatable.

Maybe lean more on Catching Freedom? He did pass all 10 rivals in the Louisiana Derby (including Honor Marie). Despite that last-to-first performance, he's projected to have a little more early run than and . That could hedge his chances to get a more favorable position.

Second best late is probably the , but he's just not as good as and , and doesn't have any upside advantage. I just don't want to add money to the third backup plan.

Beyond that, what, Endlessly? At least he'll be a better price than Mystik Dan. By the time you get to Domestic Product (not to mention Society Man), I'd rather just take my chances with the stronger trackers.

Cool, what kind of odds do you expect SL to be? I haven't given it much thought really other than Fierceness almost has to be the post time favorite. Those once a year folks are all about who has the best Breyers. Edit: Actually more importantly I need to hope there's a mattress on the Todd train. Nothing against the horse (Fierceness) I like the horse, it's just that he'll have to bring it again off what appears to be a peak and with these races the spacing chooses Todd more than he chooses the spacing. Doesn't mean he can't win but it's not ideal.

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by DanBoals

Didn't Calvin Borel make a career out of biding his time, then running up the rail and passing everyone as they tired? Surely he is not the only jockey capable of this...

Can you imagine puny Gaffalione coming up the rail on this horse?

It'd be funnier than Cornelio's rail runs with NoBiz

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by MJC922

Cool, what kind of odds do you expect SL to be? I haven't given it much thought really other than Fierceness almost has to be the post time favorite. Those once a year folks are all about who has the best Breyers.

With about $75k in the win pool, Sierra Leone is steadily 7/2. Fierceness is the same price at the moment, but he's dipped to 3-1 previously. I figure that's about where they wind up.

If he's your horse, I think the is playable to win at 7-2. Not sure he's for me at that price, but he'd be hard to pass up at 4-1. Anyone at 3-1 just seems too sharp.

Even before Epic Ride drew in, there was a chance Sierra Leone edged Fierceness for favoritism. Seems more plausible for to be really short in that scenario, rather then Fierceness high. Basically just flip their ML, 5-2 and 3-1. We're not getting 7-2 and 4-1. But that resembles my value line, such as it is.

[wiretowire68]

It is really going to depend which horse brain shows up Fierceness A or Fierceness Z...and he shows up as much as I dislike the favour, that stretch although to me it was not the fierce competition in Florida Derby and he geared down and it was breeze. Bad start or someone forcing hard to a 44.00 and cause him to chase harder... otherwise, If its the closer.. I still think Mystik Dan, but what happens is those EPs are still together 1/2 way through the turn, some will stay on...maybe look at Catalytic the way Mage was with Forte, Variant wise...he chased him and its 3rd start stretching...so.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by wiretowire68

It is really going to depend which horse brain shows up Fierceness A or Fierceness Z...and he shows up as much as I dislike the favour, that stretch although to me it was not the fierce competition in Florida Derby and he geared down and it was breeze. Bad start or someone forcing hard to a 44.00 and cause him to chase harder... otherwise, If its the closer.. I still think Mystik Dan, but what happens is those EPs are still together 1/2 way through the turn, some will stay on...maybe look at Catalytic the way Mage was with Forte, Variant wise...he chased him and its 3rd start stretching...so.

Fierceness two bad races he had legitimate excuses. He lunged at the start on a sloppy track and he wasn't nowhere near in shape for the Holy Bull. He will run his best race on Saturday provided he doesn't get slammed at the start. His fair odds should be 8-5 so he will be a massive overlay.