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07-31-2016, 08:12 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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Win % Question
Ray has posted stats on harness racing comparing the win percentage of horses in the same class vs horses moving up in class vs horses dropping in class.
Does anyone have this info for the thoroughbreds, or has it been posted here before?
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07-31-2016, 08:59 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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For those who may be interested, Ray2000's original post on this subject, which was on the harness racing forum, based on harness races:
Horses moving up in class by 3 or more Trackmaster Class Points ROI 0.606, WIN 8%
Horses moving down in class by 3 or more Trackmaster Class Points ROI 0.821, WIN 21%
Horses remaining in the same class ROI 0.749, WIN 13%
These stats were what I expected based on my own research and handicapping experience.
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07-31-2016, 12:16 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,671
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The big problem here is in the class definitions for thoroughbreds. There are so many classes and restrictions, it's hard to define class moves without a huge project on that subject alone. I have good data for NY, but it would still be tough to produce reliable stats like that because I don't have everything.
It might be easiest to do it at the stakes level, but even there you are dealing with large differences. There are Grade 1s and there are BC races. There are Grade 2s and there is this year's San Diego (which was clearly a solid Grade 1).
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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07-31-2016, 12:27 PM
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#4
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pandy
Horses moving up in class by 3 or more Trackmaster Class Points ROI 0.606, WIN 8%
Horses moving down in class by 3 or more Trackmaster Class Points ROI 0.821, WIN 21%
Horses remaining in the same class ROI 0.749, WIN 13%
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Taking a quick glance at ROI stats, it might be wise to do a quick run on all horses moving up/moving down in class by 1 or 2 TC points ONLY.....
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07-31-2016, 12:44 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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My guess is that the stats will be similar with thoroughbreds, if you used a similar barometer, such as 3 Trackmaster or Bris class rating points. Of course, it's logical that horses will win more often off drops.
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07-31-2016, 12:53 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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I don't know how trackmaster computes their class points so be careful to look out for horses that are coming out of conditioned races into tougher conditions or open races. There are factors that make a bigger difference than purse values or claiming price.
Last edited by green80; 07-31-2016 at 12:54 PM.
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07-31-2016, 12:56 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by green80
I don't know how trackmaster computes their class points so be careful to look out for horses that are coming out of conditioned races into tougher conditions or open races. There are factors that make a bigger difference than purse values or claiming price.
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I love those hidden class drops, or vice versa.
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07-31-2016, 03:42 PM
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#8
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,943
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Pandy,
It is a well-covered topic in my Percentages & Probabilities book, which I believe you have.
This is from the ancillary files accompanying the book. There are about 125 IV tables, broken out by type of race, distance, etc.
Here are Claiming Sprints, older, fast (N2L & N3L removed).
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07-31-2016, 09:09 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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Nice, thanks Dave.
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