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Churchill Downs Friday May 3, 2024
I am posting races 1-7 now, I will handicap later. 1st post is 7:30 am my time(how ridiculous is that). I will handicap the later races in between races and post them probably around 2:30 PM eastern time. I have to get some sleep. Just fyi, these are obviously very wide open races. Just because I may cut a race to 6 horses is not an implication that those are the only 6 horses that can win, it is an implication that those are the only horses I want to use. It is sort of a subtle subjective line between using a horse and not using it (unfortunately sometimes I blow that decision process and sometimes for really stupid reasons-that is when you see me come back with the comment I had no business missing that horse). I don't pretend that I am going to run the table (it would be nice and of course that is my goal).
Reminder that I dont play sequences 4x5x8. That isn't the way to make money (in non carryover situations-even in carryover situations I will typically require 1 of 3 top choices to make the cost reasonable). I typically like to find a good value horse and key him where I can. For instance in race one today I am going 7 deep on my contender list. One of the horses is 20-1 on the morning line. Now he may go off at 5-1 for all I know, but if he is at 12-1+ line he will be singled on some tickets. In the 2nd race my top choice is 10-1 in the morning line. If look at the double probables and he is 5-1 plus, I am singling him on some tickets...............This list just tells me who I need to use with the horses I am keying. You may have some horses you really like and are looking to single or double. If one of my 7 horses in a race is a 3-1 you tossed, you can probably live without him. But if I have a 20-1 shot on my list and you don't have him, you should consider adding him. He may run up the track but when one of these guys connects that opens that door wide open for you to make some good money. Same goes for listening to the talking heads. If they have a good opinion (that is up to you to decide) and they are giving you a price horse, you should want to include him. If they are giving you a 7/2 shot you don't like, who needs him.
Now for today. Horses are in post postion order. Top choices when I have one will be bolded. So far I have a lot of top choices which helps me with the cost cutting if I want to dive into a pick 4 or pick 5.
Race 1) 3-4-6-7-8-9-10
Race 2) 1-4-6-7-9-10
race 3) 3-5-8-10-11-13
race 4) 3-6-8-9-10-11
Race 5) 4-5-6-7
Race 6) Single 2 (if you want to spread the 5-8-9-10 look like the danger)
Race 7) 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-10
be back tomorrow with the rest.
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