What do you know about Maiden Claimers?

[OTM Al]

Still a good example, but can't know the results, which can be deceptive anyway as it would be a sample of 1. If I had to take one here it would be the 7. He's run a few more times than I'd like, but there have only been six of those shots at this level, which looks to be where he belongs. Anything close to the one 2 back, he's on the lead and no one is catching him. Bad horses aren't so good at the catching business.The favorite has never made the lead, so I'd toss him based on that alone. My second choice would be the 1. Lightly raced and moving in the right direction. The rest look like the proverbial dumpster fire, though the 4 might rate 3rd pick to win

[Tom]

DRF's Betting Maidens has a method where you modify the horse's best Beyer by so many points depending on the age and number of races it has had. I found it pretty useful in cheaper maidens races, especially claimers.

Aside from that, I look at breeding, workouts, and trainer. Contrary to popular opinion, for those horses that have a few races, I look at sustained pace, third fraction, and late pace.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Tom

DRF's Betting Maidens has a method where you modify the horse's best Beyer by so many points depending on the age and number of races it has had. I found it pretty useful in cheaper maidens races, especially claimers.

Aside from that, I look at breeding, workouts, and trainer. Contrary to popular opinion, for those horses that have a few races, I look at sustained pace, third fraction, and late pace.

Would that be "Betting Maidens & 2-Year-Olds" by Dan IllMan?

[Tom]

Yes, that's the one.

[mishka]

I am pretty new to handicapping--been to races taking visiting family to local track at which we lost money. but enjoyed the time. After a year or so of now-and-again playing, reading, studying, I got on the "Dick Mitchell 200 race plan". He recommends you handicapp 200 playable races to determine your skill level and to gain practice. I was hopping around alot, but decided to play 30-50 races of one type at time to see what I could discover. The first wave was strictly Maiden Claiming. Obviously a small sample, but a few thoughts, more questions than thoughts.

How real is the class drop from MSW to MC? My limited plays show the majority of those drops losing--rarely in the money. When they do win, the odds are not that great (like the highest I saw was 4.2). Is the implication that this drop is a long shot play? or a will return a nice profit? In my limited plays, simply not seeing it so far. But I will bow to those who have made a good living at this race if they have seen otherwise over many races.

But I did learn though was that a favorite can actually be an overlay. I played one race at Del Mar where the MSW to MC dropper was thee obvious choice. (The purse was like $50K+ for a MC race). The final odds were something around 1.5 for the favorite, but should have been like 1/10 or something near that. Even for a new person trying to do their own odds line, this was obviously way out of line. Horse won by about 4 lengths. In this case, in reading about class drops looks like the barn/trainer got in and nabbed themselves a nice, easy, profitable win. Maybe this is profitable angle--in MC races enough doubt even obvious favorites don't get bet down into the dirt and end up overlays.

You know, maybe a potentially significant class drop to watch is not from MSW, but from levels like MC25000 or MC30000 to MC10000. James Quinn in his book on "recreational handicapping" writes about these drops at tracks like Santa Anita as being fairly significant.

Good thread. Thanks.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by mishka

I
You know, maybe a potentially significant class drop to watch is not from MSW, but from levels like MC25000 or MC30000 to MC10000.
Good thread. Thanks.

If you are playing in California, you might want to watch MSW60,000 to MSW26,000

[mishka]

If you are playing in California, you might want to watch MSW60,000 to MSW26,000

Thanks for the tip!

[DRIVEWAY]

Maiden Claimers Only
Jan thru April Only
Fts only
Minimum temperature 40 degrees only
One turn races only
__________________________________________________ ________
Points:
Number of Workouts at track or local training tracks within 33 days - 1 pt each
Gate work 3rd or 4th workout back - 1 pt
5 Furlong or longer work - 1 pt
Lasix - 1pt
Blinkers - 1 pt
__________________________________________________ _________
Single top horse with 8+ points bet to win with no minimum odds otherwise
Single top horse with 7 points bet to win with minimum odds 6-1 otherwise
Top Point horse(s) per race with a minimum of 6 points
are bettable at 9-1 odds or higher. Maximum bettable horses are three per race otherwise
If more than 3 horses qualify, restrict wager possibles to 12-1 ML and increase minmum odds to 13-1 otherwise
If still more than 3 horses pass race.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by DRIVEWAY

Maiden Claimers Only
Jan thru April Only
Fts only
Minimum temperature 40 degrees only
One turn races only
__________________________________________________ ________
Points:
Number of Workouts at track or local training tracks within 33 days - 1 pt each
Gate work 3rd or 4th workout back - 1 pt
5 Furlong or longer work - 1 pt
Lasix - 1pt
Blinkers - 1 pt
__________________________________________________ _________
Single top horse with 8+ points bet to win with no minimum odds otherwise
Single top horse with 7 points bet to win with minimum odds 6-1 otherwise
Top Point horse(s) per race with a minimum of 6 points
are bettable at 9-1 odds or higher. Maximum bettable horses are three per race otherwise
If more than 3 horses qualify, restrict wager possibles to 12-1 ML and increase minmum odds to 13-1 otherwise
If still more than 3 horses pass race.

Interesting ideas.
Personally, a horse in So Cal that is not on Lasix is a toss for me.

[Ocala Mike]

Bumping this thread with a reference to Sunday's 4th race at Belmont. "Unusual" connections put over a second-time starter by the name of UNUSUAL LAZ to pay $34.00 off a very poor first start.

The horse was pounded in the exacta pool; I noticed at one time that the exacta with the favorite second was paying less than the win price, a fact that Andy Serling tweeted about.


Ocala Mike

[Capper Al]

MishKa,

What is "Dick Mitchell's 200 race plan?"

Thanks

[Quackfan]

I try to keep it pretty simple. Not only Maiden Claimers but I use this with all Maiden Races. If the J/T win % is 30% or better and the horse is going off at 7/2 or better it is an automatic play for me. But the J/T sampling has to be with 20 or more.

[rubicon55]

Originally Posted by Quackfan

I try to keep it pretty simple. Not only Maiden Claimers but I use this with all Maiden Races. If the J/T win % is 30% or better and the horse is going off at 7/2 or better it is an automatic play for me. But the J/T sampling has to be with 20 or more.

Curious, it seems 30% is rather high. On the bigger circuits I see 20-25% coming in a lot on all race types. I imagine that the 30% threshold really restricts qaulifying horses or number of plays. I dont't disagree - that percentage is a combination. Do you agree?

[Quackfan]

Yes I do agree. In race types other than Maiden Races you will see the 30% combination a lot more, but they seem to be over bet. But in Maiden Races maybe due to the lack of information it seems to me that you tend to get better prices on this combination. IMO to be some what successful at this game the player has to be very selective and pick there spots irregardless of there handicapping methods. That means passing on a lot of races. I only play the bigger circuits and this combination seems to come up enough to keep my interest. I also like playing them in vertical exotics DDs & Pick-3s irregardless of price if I can find something I like in an adjoining race.

[mishka]

MishKa,

What is "Dick Mitchell's 200 race plan?"

Thanks

CapperAl: in his book Winning Throughbred Strategies in Chapter 10 called Setting Performance Goals, Mitchell recommends that to determine how well you can bet and return an acceptable ROI that:

"

This is a decision you have to make for yourself. In order to be able to make this decision you will need a result summary from ten twenty-race groups: that's 200 racess. For now now we are interested in setting achievable goals which can be modified as we improve our skills. page 67

Page over he states this is what you need to tell yourself about those 200 races in 20 race increments: win at least 12 out of 20 by betting on two winners; ROI is at least 20%; Win percent is 60% with average mutuel of $8.

M.