Track Bias

[sally]

Lamboguy mentioned track bias on another thread and that just reminded me of a question I've had for a while--

Even if you know there's a track bias, say the inside, how does that help you pick the winning horse? The guy in post 8 might just get over to the rail and beat out posts 1, 2 and 3 etc. I see a lot of talk about track bias but I really don't see how it's that helpful. (of course, my roi probably explains why that is )

anyway...I'm just sayin'

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by sally

Lamboguy mentioned track bias on another thread and that just reminded me of a question I've had for a while--

Even if you know there's a track bias, say the inside, how does that help you pick the winning horse? The guy in post 8 might just get over to the rail and beat out posts 1, 2 and 3 etc. I see a lot of talk about track bias but I really don't see how it's that helpful. (of course, my roi probably explains why that is )

anyway...I'm just sayin'

A horseplayer can regard knowledge of a bias as an "edge". That's all.
It can help your chances of winning, but the pitfalls that you mention are always present.

[Learned Hand35]

In this hypothetical (a golden rail):

The outside horse would have to cover a lot more ground and expend more energy as well as beat any other potential speed horses in the middle posts to get to the rail.

Speed horses on the inside posts would already be long gone.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Learned Hand35

In this hypothetical (a golden rail):

The outside horse would have to cover a lot more ground and expend more energy as well as beat any other potential speed horses in the middle posts to get to the rail.

Speed horses on the inside posts would already be long gone.

Identifying which horses will benefit from a bias is not always easy. However, using known biases to evaluate past performances can be a gold mine when the horses run back.

[riskman]

Review the charts that are published each day for the tracks you follow. It may suggest there could be an inside-outside or pace bias. Look at where certain posts finished, and compares those results with the odds of the horses. If evidence of inside horses outran their odds while the majority of outside horses ran worse than their odds, there is a bias possibility.
If you've got certain trends happening three or four days in a row, you've might have something. You would want to know that there's probably a good rail rather than to know nothing. Usually by the time you notice something things begin to return to normal and you missed the boat.

[sonnyp]

aqueduct's inner always comes to mind in conversations about track bias. in past years, speed horses that had inside posts seemed to have a decided edge.

i've watched many races on that track with a couple insightful handicappers. when the track is "playing" to inside position, i've watched, "seemingly inferior", horses take the lead in a race. the "perceived" better horses tracked in behind as the race unfolded. because of positioning in the early stages of the race, the "perceived better" horses had to slide out to the 2,3 or 4 path to pass the "perceived inferior" horse who had secured a front running inside position earlier in the race as the field entered the stretch. the horses in the outer paths seem ed to become sluggish and i would watch in amazement as a 3/5 shot, with dead aim on a 10/1 shot would flounder and, simply not be able to pass the inside horse.

in these situations, handicapping boils down to attempting to estimate which horse will lead the race into the stretch without having had to run a significant distance in the outer track earlier in yhe race.

not as easy as it sounds because the trainers and jocks adapt their racing styles to fit the conditions.

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by riskman

Review the charts that are published each day for the tracks you follow. It may suggest there could be an inside-outside or pace bias. Look at where certain posts finished, and compares those results with the odds of the horses. If evidence of inside horses outran their odds while the majority of outside horses ran worse than their odds, there is a bias possibility.
If you've got certain trends happening three or four days in a row, you've might have something. You would want to know that there's probably a good rail rather than to know nothing. Usually by the time you notice something things begin to return to normal and you missed the boat.

Ain't it the truth.

[Tom]

Pay attention to jocks who seem to understand a bias and ride it to an advantage. Some are totally clueless, but some have proven to be able to put their horses where on the track they need to be.

[Rapid Grey]

Originally Posted by Tom

Pay attention to jocks who seem to understand a bias and ride it to an advantage. Some are totally clueless, but some have proven to be able to put their horses where on the track they need to be.

see A.O. Stanley at Hawthorne, the guy can have the best speed in the race, from the rail post, and wind up four wide in a five horse field.

[illinoisbred]

Originally Posted by Rapid Grey

see A.O. Stanley at Hawthorne, the guy can have the best speed in the race, from the rail post, and wind up four wide in a five horse field.

Agree, he's not the most aggressive guy out there and seldom seems to be out in front. Whenever Hawthorne is playing anything but fair (which from my perspective has been very few days this fall/winter),it pays to watch where Timothy Thornton places his mounts. He quickly adapts and places his mounts in the best path (IMO).

[DRIVEWAY]

Originally Posted by riskman

Review the charts that are published each day for the tracks you follow. It may suggest there could be an inside-outside or pace bias. Look at where certain posts finished, and compares those results with the odds of the horses. If evidence of inside horses outran their odds while the majority of outside horses ran worse than their odds, there is a bias possibility.
If you've got certain trends happening three or four days in a row, you've might have something. You would want to know that there's probably a good rail rather than to know nothing. Usually by the time you notice something things begin to return to normal and you missed the boat.

The assumptive bias value pack will have you on board the boat before it sails.

List all of the bias' that may apply. Inside speed, outside speed, closer, inside close, outside closer, golden rail etc. Focus on dirt races.

Identify the wagers that meet each criteria. Utilize conditional wagering to establish you value minimums. Some of these wagers will be overbet because of current form so they will be natural passes.

My personal favorite is the DD. I do this regularly at several summer tracks. My second favorite time is the last race when there has been at least a general bias(horses running to form and short prices prevailing) and the track maintenance crew decides to get a head start on maintenance and they do it between the last two races. Opportunity knocks when you least expect it.

The best times to focus on bias is when there has been rain in the past few days, the weather is very hot/humid, cold/windy conditions, track sealed, track unsealed, heavy track maintenance.

Keep good records and when you're on the boat before everyone else smile when you cash your tickets.

[Pcon04]

a man after my own heart Bias Rules!!!