How Do You Spot An Edge ?

[JBmadera]

In my mind “edge” is a certain set of handicapping criteria which yield a positive ROI over time. To that end I use HTR Robot functionality to develop/test my spot plays.

[skate]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

and pass races.Nothing turns your betting numbers around than not betting just to bet.

i like the above and what you said in your first post "seven races played in 14 days" or something similar.


As far as an edge is concerned, these are strong mostely because You have THE control. You limit and pounce.


So, if you cap like PA, you limit all...and go from there.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by skate

i like the above and what you said in your first post "seven races played in 14 days" or something similar.


As far as an edge is concerned, these are strong mostely because You have THE control. You limit and pounce.


So, if you cap like PA, you limit all...and go from there.

I have no preset number of races I allow myself to play.Betting an Ohio 7/7 card and Saratoga and a few stakes races from elsewhere I could bet as many as 10 races a day.On a single card though I might only bet 2-3 races.

I have my restrictions on bets though.Like I said I will not bet to win on any horse under 2-1.Horses I love under 2-1 I'll play top heavy in 1 or 2 exacta/DD combinations.I'll only bet 1% of my bankroll if it will pay 5% or better of my bankroll.Or 2% of my bankroll if it will pay 10% or better.

It just leaves me with good decisions.No edge=pass the race.If you're playing into a 40-65% ROI situation there is no haste to do it all right now.You pick your spots and wait knowing over time the numbers will favor you.

[rstone]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I have no preset number of races I allow myself to play.Betting an Ohio 7/7 card and Saratoga and a few stakes races from elsewhere I could bet as many as 10 races a day.On a single card though I might only bet 2-3 races.

I have my restrictions on bets though.Like I said I will not bet to win on any horse under 2-1.Horses I love under 2-1 I'll play top heavy in 1 or 2 exacta/DD combinations.I'll only bet 1% of my bankroll if it will pay 5% or better of my bankroll.Or 2% of my bankroll if it will pay 10% or better.

It just leaves me with good decisions.No edge=pass the race.If you're playing into a 40-65% ROI situation there is no haste to do it all right now.You pick your spots and wait knowing over time the numbers will favor you.

So I guess that means you avoid Perry Outz and his barrage of 2-5 shots day after day after day...which is probably the smart way to go

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by rstone

So I guess that means you avoid Perry Outz and his barrage of 2-5 shots day after day after day...which is probably the smart way to go

The last 2 days I've bet River Downs there were only 4 of 14 winners that paid 2-1 or better.I had 2 of them at 5-1 and 7/2.It's pretty bad.That's what started me on betting exactas heavily back in 1999.

[jonnielu]

Originally Posted by jamey1977

I have gone through everything. Bet when you have an edge. Every handicapper says this. Well how do we know when we have an edge ? . Is it a race with 2 contenders and one goes to 3 to 5 and the other goes to 4 to 1 sort of like in The Blaine- Quality Road race.? Finding these types of betting for these races, takes forever. Might get off 7 plays in 2 weeks on 1 circuit. Or is the edge another matter.? How do we know when we have an edge? I am tired of putting money down and losing anyway. Everyone talks about an edge. How do we know ?

You have an edge when you have found a consistency, and are willing to develop the discipline that will enable you to exploit it for yourself. It doesn't have to be complicated, it doesn't have to be a big secret. If you believe that there are consistencies in the game that you can take advantage of, you are already ahead of 70% of bettors.

In the modern game, the racing secretary has plenty of similar horses to throw at you for every condition he has written. It is easy to put 4 sound contenders in every 8 horse field, and there never was such a huge difference in horses. 30 years ago, maybe. Everybody agrees that win betting is a tough game these days.

But, there are some things that remain the same, perhaps that is a testament to their overall strength, and that strength may be something that you can tap into.

Take for instance, the win percentage of the favorite. About 30%, and holding pretty steady throughout the history of pari-mutual wagering. Add in the other three choices, and we are up around 75% of winners, almost on a daily basis without even looking at a past performance line. Pretty consistent.

Add to that, the average North American win mutuel has been around 4-1 for that whole time also. All tracks, all conditions, all surfaces, the handicapper is spending most of his time trying to decide which of these 4 horses to bet, which one is the "best". Tossing, and re-tossing past performance minutia looking for an edge for one horse, out of 5.

The 5th horse? The 25 - 30% of winners that come from the field.

When, most of the time, the edge for 1 will be something that takes place after the gate opens today. Hard to find in the form, but you will run across some from time to time. But, there are probably several ways that you can make an edge for yourself with these consistencies, although any particular one in itself may not be a big edge.

For example, let's take the 3rd choice at 15% win rate. You could make this horses consistency into a serious edge for yourself even betting it all day, as long as you have a big enough bankroll to bet in progression. And your overall financial situation has you where you could not care less about winning or losing, or losing your whole bankroll. Your money would really be the bigger part of your edge.

If you don't have 17 $20,000 bankrolls laying around, then you would have to make your edge in knowing when to bet this horse and when to sit on your hands. You can be wrong half of the time, but you would have to develop your skill at least to that point to have made this a serious edge for yourself.

jdl

[rstone]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

The last 2 days I've bet River Downs there were only 4 of 14 winners that paid 2-1 or better.I had 2 of them at 5-1 and 7/2.It's pretty bad.That's what started me on betting exactas heavily back in 1999.

Yeah, the entire Ohio 7/7 cards have been pretty chalk heavy the past couple of months(Except for "Longshot" Lyndon Hannigan winning three times in a row with the same horse at 105-1, 30-1, and 10-1 respectively ). Between the lack of horses and between Joe Woodard and Jamie Ness bringing in horses that just stomp the competition at River and Thistledown regularly, it's been hard to find some bettable races.

Another thing that's really frustrating is how fast the odds can change because there isn't much being bet and they take too long to calculate odds...plenty of times this summer I've bet a 4-1 shot with 1 MTP only to have them leave the gate at even money...

[ohbaby]

I think one of the strongest edges you can develop is learning to read the horses in the post parade. I'd say at least 7 out of 10 horseplayers have no clue on what a horse is telling you in their warmups. Hell, I doubt 7 out of 10 even bother to look at the post parade.

Sometimes horses just stand out in the PP. Caught that horse that beat Big Brown in the Preakness at 30-1, just on his looks in warmup.

Bernardini always looked great in the post parade.

There was a horse recently at Del Mar on the turf ALW NW1x, who looked like a champion in the warmups. He was 7-1. Then those blockheads on TVG noticed him and even though they did not pick him in their early selections. All said this horse would not lose. He got bet down to 7-2 and naturally won.

It isn't all that often they stand out tons the best, but when they do.....

In stakes like the Haskell recently, there were a few who looked great including Looking At Lucky, Ice box, who didn't run that well, and a few others. The key is when one stands above them all.

[riskman]

If you do not have a positive ROI then you do not have an edge.

[magwell]

This is a great thread thanks to all who posted so far.

[Hoofhearted]

Originally Posted by jonnielu

Take for instance, the win percentage of the favorite. About 30% ...........

The 5th horse? The 25 - 30% of winners that come from the field ...........

For example, let's take the 3rd choice at 15% win rate .........................

A cautionary word to any gambler who might be bewitched into embarking on a "progression" or Martingale-style staking methodology based on Win Rate.

It can be hazardous to the pocket to think of Win Rate in terms of bare percentage alone.
One needs to consider the distribution of that probability as well. It is easy to confuse the subtle but hugely important difference between Win Rate and the fundamental mathematical concepts of distribution and "Degree Of Chance".

Without going into the mathematics of it, in the quoted example of a Win Rate of 15% the 99.9% Degree of Chance for this event to occur is 52/1 (A 100% Degree Of Chance doesn't exist). This means there is a "worse case scenario" that it could take 52 plays on 15% Win Rate shot before you hit. Even with a 33% Favourite win rate, the 99.9% Degree Of Chance is 24/1. Careful how you go, guys.


Back to the topic of the thread, I have no doubt that an "edge" is found when you find value. Finding value in turn means finding an element that the general betting public has overlooked.

[Canadian]

Originally Posted by Hoofhearted

Without going into the mathematics of it, in the quoted example of a Win Rate of 15% the 99.9% Degree of Chance for this event to occur is 52/1 (A 100% Degree Of Chance doesn't exist). This means there is a "worse case scenario" that it could take 52 plays on 15% Win Rate shot before you hit. Even with a 33% Favourite win rate, the 99.9% Degree Of Chance is 24/1. Careful how you go, guys.

Actually I'd love to see you go in to the mathmatics of it. Perhaps in a a differnent thread. I know I've heard of it discussed before but couldn't find it. I want to be able to figure out my worst case scenerios with my 5% shots or my 10% or what ever.... for that matter my best case scenerios. Any help would be appriciated.

[Hoofhearted]

Hello Canadian,

The Degree Of Certainty of an event happening is perhaps best determined by the logarithmic expression .....................
log 1 - DC / log 1 - p = N
where:
N is the number of events,
DC is the Degree Of Certainty,
p is the probability ( Win Rate)

Thus in your instance, a 10% Win Rate would have a 99.9% Degree Of Certainty to happen of 66/1. Of course it could happen on your very first play, too. The Degree Of Certainty is the worse case scenario, but it should be borne in mind.

[Hoofhearted]

Thinking .............

If you are uncomfortable using logarithmic functions, perhaps a table I have come across would be of more practical use to you.

Take the RED column as an example. A coin toss, where the Win Rate (probability) of "heads" coming up will be 50% (One in Two) or 1/2. Scroll to the bottom of the chart and you will see the 99.9% Degree Of Chance of it happening is 10/1.

[Canadian]

Originally Posted by Hoofhearted

Thinking .............

If you are uncomfortable using logarithmic functions, perhaps a table I have come across would be of more practical use to you.

Take the RED column as an example. A coin toss, where the Win Rate (probability) of "heads" coming up will be 50% (One in Two) or 1/2. Scroll to the bottom of the chart and you will see the 99.9% Degree Of Chance of it happening is 10/1.

Thank you. That's exactly what I am looking for.