Steve Haskins has his concerns about AP

[Kash$]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ety?source=rss
My concerns with American Pharoah, as I mentioned in an earlier column, are the cross-country trip to Monmouth; needing an extra day to return to the track; a very fast seven-furlong work in 1:23 1/5 six days before the Travers; getting on a another plane three days later, stopping off in Lexington, Ky.; and then running a mile a quarter three days after that against a talented group of horses who have been racing and/or training over the track all summer and are bred to relish a mile and a quarter. And let’s hope his ear plugs don’t come loose as he makes that long walk through the gauntlet of noise he will encounter on his way to the paddock.

Not only was American Pharoah’s toughest race at a mile and a quarter, but a mile and a quarter at Saratoga is more taxing on a horse than at Churchill Downs. Setting the pace going that far at Saratoga is far more demanding than setting an easy pace going 1 1/2 miles at Belmont, where the horses behind you normally don’t have the closing kick they have going 10 furlongs at Saratoga. There is a reason why the Travers is rarely run in under 2:02, and no winner has ever broken 2:00. In addition, American Pharoah drew post 2, which means he most likely will be sent to the lead or wind up chasing a top-class horse like Upstart (if he runs), who is breaking from the rail. But most likely he will be on the lead unless something unforeseen happens, strategy-wise.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Reads like he's hoping to influence the crowd and get 1-5 on AP instead of 1-9.....

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by Kash$

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ety?source=rss
But most likely he will be on the lead unless something unforeseen happens, strategy-wise.

I should hope so...He is the "reigning 3yo champ", and that is his preferred winning style...(until further notice)

A good talking points piece I guess, but as I see it, it's just a before the fact an "I told you so" line... ...

I remain a believer, all the same...

[horses4courses]

It's a Saratoga thing.....upset special.

It's possible, but the horse will have to be completely off his game.

[Robert Fischer]

He's the best horse I've ever seen, but that doesn't mean he can't lose tomorrow.

He may run 5 lengths the best of his top contenders, but if one of those contenders has a trip that is 5.5 lengths better, he'll lose.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

He's the best horse I've ever seen, but that doesn't mean he can't lose tomorrow.

He may run 5 lengths the best of his top contenders, but if one of those contenders has a trip that is 5.5 lengths better, he'll lose.

What kind of trip would be 5.5 lengths worse than another contender---if he went out to the backyard to have a beer and then came back to finish the race?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by castaway01

What kind of trip would be 5.5 lengths worse than another contender---if he went out to the backyard to have a beer and then came back to finish the race?

Doesn't happen often. You also don't have a lot of pace on paper(especially w/ likely scratch of Upstart).

Going too fast early on is probably the worst offender.

hmm...
"Stumbled start, Espinoza hesitates, Ny jocks box him in all race, frosted opens up a big comfortable lead..."
Unlikely.

More likely that he uses his 5lengths of ability advantage to get a better trip than his rivals...

[EMD4ME]

Maybe Victor's shoulder gets seperated and he has to ride with 1 hand?

Does that make up 5.5 lengths?

No wait, AP will be on his own anyway in this race.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Kash$

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ety?source=rss
My concerns with American Pharoah, as I mentioned in an earlier column, are the cross-country trip to Monmouth; needing an extra day to return to the track; a very fast seven-furlong work in 1:23 1/5 six days before the Travers; getting on a another plane three days later, stopping off in Lexington, Ky.; and then running a mile a quarter three days after that against a talented group of horses who have been racing and/or training over the track all summer and are bred to relish a mile and a quarter. And let’s hope his ear plugs don’t come loose as he makes that long walk through the gauntlet of noise he will encounter on his way to the paddock.

Not only was American Pharoah’s toughest race at a mile and a quarter, but a mile and a quarter at Saratoga is more taxing on a horse than at Churchill Downs. Setting the pace going that far at Saratoga is far more demanding than setting an easy pace going 1 1/2 miles at Belmont, where the horses behind you normally don’t have the closing kick they have going 10 furlongs at Saratoga. There is a reason why the Travers is rarely run in under 2:02, and no winner has ever broken 2:00. In addition, American Pharoah drew post 2, which means he most likely will be sent to the lead or wind up chasing a top-class horse like Upstart (if he runs), who is breaking from the rail. But most likely he will be on the lead unless something unforeseen happens, strategy-wise.

Not unless I read the wrong PPs, American Pharaoh should win the Travers easily. In my opinion the two horses that appear to be competitive are Texas Red (not season enough) and Frosted (not enough speed).

[Stillriledup]

Victor Espinoza is an expert at the nuances of Saratoga he's ridden thousands of.....oh never mind.

Last time he (AP) was in a mile and a quarter race he was beaten to a pulp to win by a length,

Proceed accordingly.

[RacingFan1992]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxC-Sd7kT4g

Thought I would post the track record performance of General Assembly in the 1979 Travers. The son of Secretariat beat a field in the slop which included Davona Dale who won the Oaks, Black-Eyed Susan, Acorn, Mother Goose, CCAO and a 2nd in the Alabama a week prior to the Travers which was won by It's In The Air owned by Harbor View Farm. Enjoy.

[SandyW]

I think there will be plenty of races at SAR on Sat. to make some series cash.
Good handicapping everybody.

[clocker7]

This class is substandard. AP isn't going to face anything challenging.

[NY BRED]

based on his post AP should be the controlling speed, IF Victor
chooses to leave early.

Obviously Upstart will leave early, and I expect Frosted to run closer
to the pace.

Texas Red will probably be positioned fifth/.fourth./make one move.

This all said, AP should win easily given a sensible pace and no
rough riding from the usual suspects.

upset special: King of NY, trained by Ken M who gave us Sarava

[Grits]

McPeek?

Not at 26-0-1-3.

His Marriott rewards nights would have served him better, elsewhere.