KY Derby Post Position Draw

[classhandicapper]

Dornoch is almost certainly going to try for the lead from the rail

[wiretowire68]

Strategy based... Pletcher has 1 Horse...Brad Cox 3... Gargan 2. Chad 2. Two Japanese makes it half the field. The ones..who handicapping wise to stand a chance and are just happy to be there. So....is it random .. The question will be 22 in change to 44 or 45..... -at least 6-7 horses will be bumper cars around the club house turn and get caught wide and if too many horses get caught by or close the rail in herd mode .... the amount of dirt flying in their face will tire them. So... the cleanest trip. And the strategy to me will be who gets sacrificed up front.

I said it before, do to the camera angles and with new layout at Churchill and the crowd... when they first take that that turn to the far turn.... I have seen many bad judgements by jockeys rushing their horses up so they can have the least amount of straightening off the incline. So.. check Churchill dirt races all week at any distance and see the replays and see how it is playing.

Yesterday... in 3 races I watch sprint and distance.. horses were pulling by midway point and ground seemed to be very difficult to make up.. Long stretch. I definitely believe you have to be up around the pace or second group at best heading into the stretch.. Going to be great..

[Nitro]

The only post position that has been in regular use since 1930 that has produced zero winners is post position 17

Nearly 100 years and Long Overdue!

Hint: Does anyone see a horse to the left or right of post #17 that will run early on with the favorite?

[sovereign]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Nearly 100 years and Long Overdue!

Hint: Does anyone see a horse to the left or right of post #17 that will run early on with the favorite?

Both, more so with Stronghold (outside) than Grand Mo (inside). But that unlucky 17 is from the old 2-piece gate. They now use a 1-piece 20-stall starting gate.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by sovereign

Both, more so with Stronghold (outside) than Grand Mo (inside). But that unlucky 17 is from the old 2-piece gate. They now use a 1-piece 20-stall starting gate.

My feeling is that nothing directly inside or outside of Fierceness will be near him going into the 1st turn.

I do see a lot of potential traffic issues among all those from post 12 inward.

[sovereign]

Originally Posted by Nitro

My feeling is that nothing directly inside or outside of Fierceness will be near him going into the 1st turn.

I do see a lot of potential traffic issues among all those from post 12 inward.

Dornoch and Track Phantom have a shot of keeping Fierceness off the rail.

[Lefty26]

If Fierceness breaks well and gets position, he will be mighty tough. Even if he goes 4-5 wide on the first turn, he will have the tactical speed to get over to the 3 path and stay outside any horses. He finished the last 1/8 of a mile in the Florida Derby in 12.59 GEARED DOWN the whole way. That is impressive!

I am hoping everyone gets scared of the 17 post never winning and betting down the wise guy horses. I have Fierceness in derby pools at 16-1 and 8-1. Anything at 3-1 or better, I think is great value. Have him on top and like Catching Freedom to run hard down the lane to get a piece.