KEEN ICE!!!

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by OntheRail

Ok Buddy if you say your a fan... your a fan ( couple of bent blades ) ... but also a.



Enjoy your day...

Is that what Blame saw when he dug down to deep to preserve his win and pull away on the gallop out

[mostpost]

Originally Posted by Steve R

You need to clarify your comment because Keen Ice ran a faster second half mile than American Pharoah by about 0.1 seconds. And last year V. E. Day ran his second half in :45.49 compared to American Pharoah's :46.78. Also, in his Travers Honest Pleasure got a mile in 1:35 flat and still won in 2:00.1.
I don't know how you arrive at that 45.49 figure because my calculations say VE Day ran his second half in 47.54.

Honest Pleasure was a speed horse loose on the lead. American Pharoah was lapped on the entire race. And American Pharoah's mile time was only eight hundredths of a second slower than Honest Pleasure's. In fact AP's time may have been faster since in 1978 they timed in fifths of a second.

Regardless of the raw times (which are generally a mistake to quote anyway because of track variability), this year's Travers was rated 4 to 5 points below the 25-year average by both Equibase and Beyer. My own figures show a similar result. The Racing Post, which is an overall performance rating and not strictly a speed figure and has been very generous to American Pharoah assigning him a 131 in the Haskell, rated his Travers performance his poorest of any since March.
I am aware of track variability. I am also aware that different people come up with different speed figures for the same race and many here criticize Beyer or whoever on a frequent basis. Saying that this years Travers was 4 to 5 points slower than the 25 year average is a guess. I know that on raw time, this years running was the third fastest in that span.

That the Racing Post has been very generous to American Pharoah is your opinion, nothing more.

I guess when someone is emotionally connected to a horse, objectivity takes a back seat.

I am not as emotionally connected to AP as you think. Not as connected as I was to California Chrome, and certainly not as emotionally connected as EMD4ME is to tearing him down.

[Steve R]

Maybe there is something in this data that can help put American Pharoah in perspective. The data include all the 10f+ dirt races for the last four TC winners plus Spectacular Bid. He is included because I believe he is the best we've seen since Secretariat. The data are presented in the following format:

Race, 6f time, Last 1/4 time, Finish, Trk Cond
Average 6f time, Average Last 1/4 time

American Pharoah:
Travers, 1:11.48, :26.64, 2 x 3/4, fst
Belmont, 1:13.41, :24.32, 1, fst
Preakness, 1:11.42, :26.76, 1, sy
Derby, 1:11.59, :26.52, 1, fst
Average, 1:11.98, :26.06

Affirmed:
JCGC, 1:13.20, 25.00, 1, fst
Woodward, 1:11.80, :25.40, 1, fst
Santa Anita H, 1:10.20, :24.40, 1, fst
Strub, 1:10.80, :24.40, 1, gd
JCGC, 1:10.80, :26.15, 5 x 18 3/4, sy (saddle slipped)
Travers, 1:11.60, :25.20, 1, fst
Belmont, 1:14.00, :25.20, 1, fst
Derby, 1:10.80, :24.40, 1, fst
Average, 1:11.65, :25.02

Seattle Slew:
JCGC, 1:09.40, :25.40, 2 x nose, sy
Woodward, 1:10.80, :24.80, 1, fst
Swaps, 1:10.40, :26.00, 4 x 16, fst (never got in it)
Belmont, 1:14.00, :25.80, 1, my
Preakness, 1:09.90, :25.42, 1, fst
Derby, 1:10.60, :26.20, 1, fst
Average, 1:10.85, :25.60

Secretariat:
Woodward, 1:13.40, :24.60, 2 x 4 1/2, sy
Belmont, 1:09.80, :25.00, 1, fst
Preakness, 1:11.40, :23.83, 1, fst
Derby, 1:11.80, :23.20, 1, fst
Average, 1:11.55, :24.16

Spectacular Bid:
Woodward, 1:14.20, :24.20, 1, fst (walkover)
Santa Anita H, 1:12.40, :23.80, 1, sy
Strub, 1:08.40, :25.00, 1, fst
Meadowlands Cup, 1:12.00, :24.80
JCGC, 1:13.40, :25.05, 2 x 3/4, fst
Belmont, 1:11.20, :26.80, 3 x 3 1/2, fst
Preakness, 1:10.6, :24.76, 1, gd
Derby, 1:12.4, :24.80, 1, fst
Average, 1:11.83, :24.90

Seriously? Regardless of the admirable accomplishment of winning the TC, does he really belong in a discussion with this group at this stage of his career?

[Steve R]

Originally Posted by mostpost

Saying that this years Travers was 4 to 5 points slower than the 25 year average is a guess.

It's not a guess at all. The historical Equibase figures are available online and the historical Beyer figures are available in the American Racing Manual.

Originally Posted by mostpost

That the Racing Post has been very generous to American Pharoah is your opinion, nothing more.

Not really. The Racing Post assigned him a 129 for the Belmont which is higher than any figure ever achieved by Zenyatta and exceeded only once in Wise Dan's entire career when he earned a 130 in the 2013 Woodbine Mile. Meanwhile, Ragozin gave the Belmont a 4-, Equibase gave it a 112 (lower than Jazil, Editor's Note, Victory Gallop et al) and Beyer gave it a 105 (significantly lower than Go and Go, Hansel, Lemon Drop Kid et al). I'd consider that quite generous.

[classhandicapper]

High quality speed figures were a giant leap for handicappers and remain an essential tool for handicapping today, but IMO they are having an absolutely destructive impact on the discussion of the historical record.

We have the ALW horses of today running faster than Secretariat on one set of figures.

We have the ALW horses of the 70s running faster than American Pharoah on another set.

We have ALW horses of today running approximately the same as those of the 70s on another set.

And those are the figures from guys that are extremely bright and competent with a long record of success in the industry. That doesn't even count the bad figures.

Everyone should be laughing.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by mostpost

I am not as emotionally connected to AP as you think. Not as connected as I was to California Chrome, and certainly not as emotionally connected as EMD4ME is to tearing him down.

Was I tearing him down after his Haskell ? Nope.

I was fair but stuck to what I saw overall.

1) I said his Haskell was his best race (indirectly knocking all of his TC races).

2) I said let's see what happens when he faces the slightest bit of pressure/a challenge/some stress.....

Viola, he faces a modicum of stress and...loses and...people saying he didn't bring his A game.

IMHO, he did bring his A game. He just didn't receive a cup cake stress free trip and couldn't run a complete race through the minor adversity.

If he come to KEE and beats those older horses fair and square, I deserve to be whip lashed by all of you. Until then, his 2 races with a smidgen of stress are the true measures of his ability it in my eyes.

[nijinski]

Track surface is different . much pressure came into the hands of those that engineer the dirt surface after the losses of Barbaro and Eight Belles and there is more layer of dirt mixture that they are running on . therefore how do you compare ? We finally have a TC winner , whether some like it or not , he has legendary status now , I'm thrilled to have witnessed that and so are many others!

[gfnut]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Did Cigar complain in the Dubai World Cup when he was surrounded by a phalanx of horses, turned them all away AND then had to deal with a rallying SOUL OF THE MATTER? No, he dug his hooves in and SAID NO WAY YOU'RE GOING BY ME.

Cigar was 5 years old when he ran in Dubai. You are comparing what Cigar did as a 5 year to what AP can do at 3. Cigar was not much of a race horse at the age of 3 or 4.

[Steve R]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

High quality speed figures were a giant leap for handicappers and remain an essential tool for handicapping today, but IMO they are having an absolutely destructive impact on the discussion of the historical record.

We have the ALW horses of today running faster than Secretariat on one set of figures.

We have the ALW horses of the 70s running faster than American Pharoah on another set.

We have ALW horses of today running approximately the same as those of the 70s on another set.

And those are the figures from guys that are extremely bright and competent with a long record of success in the industry. That doesn't even count the bad figures.

Everyone should be laughing.

Can you please cite the sources for your assertions? The only figure maker I am aware of that made claims today's horses are faster is Len Friedman. All the other major figure makers show a similar on average decline in their numbers over the last few decades.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by gfnut

Cigar was 5 years old when he ran in Dubai. You are comparing what Cigar did as a 5 year to what AP can do at 3. Cigar was not much of a race horse at the age of 3 or 4.

Not Cigar's fault they kept running him on Turf instead of Dirt.

So, no 3 year olds are capable of running races where they have any adversity and still win nicely ? (That was my main point.....) I picked Cigar as a few people I've spoken to thought AP was better than Cigar.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

1) I am a HUGE FAN of the sport, ...

BUT DON'T EVER, QUESTION ME BEING A FAN OF THIS GAME.

I've never questioned your passion for the game but, I suspect you tend to use hyperbole.

The game needs passionate fans within limits.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by Steve R

Can you please cite the sources for your assertions? The only figure maker I am aware of that made claims today's horses are faster is Len Friedman. All the other major figure makers show a similar on average decline in their numbers over the last few decades.

Jerry Brown is much more of a "they're faster now" guy than Len Friedman is.

[Steve R]

Originally Posted by RXB

Jerry Brown is much more of a "they're faster now" guy than Len Friedman is.

Any idea how his figs compare with the Ragozin 4-, 6", 4- for AP's TC? Apparently Ragozin thinks the colt is on the slow side compared to a lot of recent TC race winners.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by Steve R

Any idea how his figs compare with the Ragozin 4-, 6", 4- for AP's TC? Apparently Ragozin thinks the colt is on the slow side compared to a lot of recent TC race winners.

Much faster on T-Graph. -3, -0.5, -0.5.

Here are links to T-Graph's archived figure page and to the figures for American Pharoah and other Belmont Stakes runners, through the Belmont Stakes.

https://www.thorograph.com/archive.php

https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/bel2015.pdf

[alhattab]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

To answer your question, I guess I've been getting lucky for about 25 years.

I find your last statement extremely insulting.

You attack me, I defend. What's the matter bully? You don't like being pushed back with facts?

I could care less about being the greatest show on earth or whatever that is supposed to mean.

All I care about is discussing our passion, this game.

You want to disagree, that's great. Don't forget we are betting against eachother and I prefer everyone disagree with me. But don't attack me personally.

Besides telling grits what I think of her, after her personally insulting me 4 or 5 times, I NEVER EVER say anything about any one on here. So, I ask of you to be respectful in return.

So, how about those Mets!