And The Winer Was…

[omar2]

And the race should be at least somewhat competitive. You really should never use a line where the horse shows nada because it’s mp # is high because of the pace of the race of the other horses and he doesn’t lift his hooves. Look at the #5 horse in race 8 at CD on 5/4. He ran in the Blue Grass in last, 7th all way round the track. His last two race mp#’s just did not make sense and so used his 3rd back. He was in the arc and really was the only overlay there. He won.
Another point is if the horse shows an AFP (T1,T2,T2a or b or*,T3), then I will goo back at least 1 line back to help the horse with a better mp#! Accentuate the positive and Eliminate the Negative. Ever hear that before?? circa 1970’s Tom Ainslie.
Will post screen shot later when computer is open.Still in nursing home and they’re stealing my money!! At least they’re trying to.

[wiretowire68]

I had this horse in tournament play.. I actually thought that was the best bet of the day up to that point in the card.

[omar2]

I remember the race now that I could see it. His last to races were lower than his 3rd back but because he was a single pattern in the arc I wanted to help him with a better number. All the other horses I used their last race except the 10 who had AFP and his last race was unusable anyhow. The 6 was a pattern horse also but only had one 2 turn route in the slop. This was a 1 turn mile so I used his last race. I didn’t want to go back to January. I felt the 5 was a slight overlay based on his contention and ml compare to the others in arc. Note the 11 horse’s %E was too high for the profile even though he was top of my arc.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a...1&d=1715096886

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a...1&d=1715096886

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a...1&d=1715096886

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a...1&d=1715097048

[omar2]

using the late bias makes more sense since there were 4 need to lead horses plus the 11. now the arc looks like this.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a...1&d=1715099410

[wiretowire68]

The fact besides how he came out on Software, 1 turn mile.. 12 hole is still a tough post to hold a mile as a fulcrum. And Vlahos was facing top company for the first time and shipping in.. he ran very well. To me, unless you get a serious overlay on #11 in the arc and he was top of the line, I have a hard time taking maiden sp. weight winners jumping up that high in class unless there is serious talk about the horse. That is just from a sensible handicapping point of view, the fact that M/L was I believe 7/2 or 2nd choice pushed me right to the Advanced form patterns.. the fact that he ran in the G1, cutting back and the VC price was going to be closed to what the software offered at value.

[wiretowire68]

Sorry. I believe the m/l was 8-1 on Vlahos. But being on top of line.. and the E style of win, he would come down in odds.