Andy Serling KY derby breakdown

[Afleet]

thought it was pretty good and worth watching. We are on the same page about the contenders so maybe I'm biased

[the little guy]

Here's the link if anyone cares...

YouTube

[denniswilliams]

Thanks for the link.

Doesn't get better than an 'old-school' analysis.

Too bad the 'other' Brown isn't Tuscan Gold.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

Thanks for the link.

Doesn't get better than an 'old-school' analysis.

Too bad the 'other' Brown isn't Tuscan Gold.

Preakness I think

[zerosky]

First rate analysis as always. I agree it is difficult to get a handle on Domestic Product, the Tampa Bay Derby was the slowest since 1994, all the problems before the race started would not have helped.

I'm not a value player (in the strictest sense) I just pick the horse I think will win the race and I can't bet him on promise. However at 30/1 this would be a tremendous call if he pulls it off.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by zerosky

First rate analysis as always. I agree it is difficult to get a handle on Domestic Product, the Tampa Bay Derby was the slowest since 1994, all the problems before the race started would not have helped.

I'm not a value player (in the strictest sense) I just pick the horse I think will win the race and I can't bet him on promise. However at 30/1 this would be a tremendous call if he pulls it off.

i have to admit that's not the worst pick to this race, so i guess its possible. i liked the Louisiana race the best this year, so i would pick out of the 3 horses. to narrow it down better before the day of the race i would probably just stick HONOR MARIE and TRACK PHANTOM. those 2 mainly because they have performed great over the Churchill Downs oval. the monkey wrench to the whole race could be the Japanese horse. he looks like he has a ton of ability, but i just can't get wild over the race he came out of.

still even though i am on that direction now, doesn't mean i will be there 5 minutes before the race.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Here's the link if anyone cares...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHuqFuTGO2U

I did the SA handicapping show back in April with Tom Quigley-not easy to do. Think I had one winner, a Baffert chalk, and lost a brutal photo on another. Maybe had a second place and third place on the whole card. It was a debacle

[classhandicapper]

Excellent pre race analysis of the Derby.

[wiretowire68]

The breakdown was good but he was being sentimental because he is a New Yorker. The man has one of the most unbelievable memories and recall in Racing that I have listened too.. Caleb Keller of TVG.. right there in terms of total recall.

Now.. but man... his evaluation of Domestic Product was being hopeful.. the horse is too slow.. How many Tampa Derby winners have won the derby lately(and I asking that? as I am not googling it as I type) Grass in the future under Chad.. I often wondered if producer's are in their ear feeding them info or are they really that smart when it comes to recalling their research?

Either way.. glad I did not bet it.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by wiretowire68

The breakdown was good but he was being sentimental because he is a New Yorker. The man has one of the most unbelievable memories and recall in Racing that I have listened too.. Caleb Keller of TVG.. right there in terms of total recall.

Now.. but man... his evaluation of Domestic Product was being hopeful.. the horse is too slow.. How many Tampa Derby winners have won the derby lately(and I asking that? as I am not googling it as I type) Grass in the future under Chad.. I often wondered if producer's are in their ear feeding them info or are they really that smart when it comes to recalling their research?

Either way.. glad I did not bet it.

To be fair per the trainer he lost a shoe and grabbed a quarter so I don't think he ran his race. With that being said on my numbers he had never run better than a 12, he was consistently at a 12 and par for the Derby is between 5 and a 6, that would require like a 7 point forward move, even Rich Strike came into the race off a 10. This horse looked like he might be ready for a forward move with that flat line but that's to me too big of one to ask even on trips and all the rest. I respect Andy's opinion, he takes a shot, it's that kind of race. I just went for the logical horse at 9-2 but I can see where people are willing to chase a price. It happens often enough in this race to say why not. Not many 20-1 shots make total sense so if you ever want to catch one this is how it's done, project some improvement and hope for the best.

[denniswilliams]

Bad style to criticize someone's picks AFTER the race.

[wiretowire68]

criticizing but I think he was being sentimental in terms of Klaravich and Chad Brown and New York more as part of his analysis and I actually think the man is brilliant in terms of his understanding of bias etc. and his success of where he is. Because he would not be where he is without experience and success. I watched the youtube video before the race and who would not be interested when it comes to those connections over the last 10 years. I just believe it was not realistic enough based on raw figures and the fact that its been 17 years since a horse won the Tampa Bay Derby then went on to win the Derby.(Street Sense)