American Pharoah wins the Belmont & Triple Crown!!

[highnote]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

No genius, any real profitable player out there (they are 1 in 10,000) actually knows I speak the truth. I'm not on here to win anyone over or to sway anyone. I love it when people mock me and disagree with me. It reinforces that I should just keep betting as there are a lot of unseasoned players out there that believe hooplah and kool aid.

He might have won the TC but he's no champion in my eyes and my eyes, parimutually are all that matter and if I'm betting parimutually, I'm happy my logical opinion is against the masses opinion.

From a breeder's perspective, it is also important to understand how good or bad AP's Belmont Stakes performance was compared to other ones.

If you have a great mare, do you send her to AP because he is fashionable, but unproven? Or do you send her to a more established sire?

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by highnote

From a breeder's perspective, it is also important to understand how good or bad AP's Belmont Stakes performance was compared to other ones.

If you have a great mare, do you send her to AP because he is fashionable, but unproven? Or do you send her to a more established sire?

That is an excellent and interesting question. I'd rather go to a proven sire that has overcome adversity to be victorious. From a heart perspective and from a true talent perspective.

Your thoughts?

[minethatbird08]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Sorry if i think with logic and not with your kool aid on how good AP is.

Want to prove me wrong? Tell me 1 thing he did from a trip, pace perspective, in any of his races, that was impressive. Go ahead, I dare you. Just 1.....

Won the Derby with a wide trip after acting up. It was a clean trip no doubt but great horses make there trips.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by minethatbird08

Won the Derby with a wide trip after acting up. It was a clean trip no doubt but great horses make there trips.

Wide trip? since when does a 3 wide trip stalking in a race that ran 321 where 10 horses were accordioned (and still finished better than him) and where the pace was a joke with a slow end A ROUGH TRIP?

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

No pal, I'm not a Hulkamania loving, root for the American hero chalk eating weasel. I know greatness when I see it.

AP was not impressive. His pace was equal to race 6, yes for older horses, yes it was 2/5 faster than Coach Inge but it was done with zero competition from the only pace horse in the race.

you want talent, look at a horse who wins 2 duels in 1 race and holds off a closer. Find a horse who is stressed through the fastest part of a race and finds the guts to win.

AP had 3 different type of cakewalk scenarios vs. horses who were compromised in all 3 TC races. He overcame ZERO obstacles.

He is no superhorse. Sorry to be a debbie downer. I've seen 50 claimers who were more impressive than this horse.

You've seen 50 claimers better than a Triple Crown winner? You might as well just stop now. You are looking more and more like a whining jealous fool with every post you write.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Slow?? He ran 24+, 48+ and 73 thru 6f.

How fast did you want him to go in a 12f race where you would think it was okay?

He was leading W2W, so why go faster. He is fortunate he wasn't pressed during the early part.

It's been a couple of hours are you still pondering away?

I agree with Rex, but I'd also say that Espinoza did a great job riding. He only did what he had to do to win.

I'd say the pace was Average Early / Average Late or maybe Average Early / Fast Late.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by depalma113

You've seen 50 claimers better than a Triple Crown winner? You might as well just stop now. You are looking more and more like a whining jealous fool with every post you write.

I'm not jealous. I'm happy for all involved 1) the game 2) the fans who love him and wagered on him 3) the owner/jockey/trainer etc.

I am just analyzing his effort as if I was analyzing a 10 claimer at Mountaineer on a Monday night as true winning horseplayers do.

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Not my point. Pletcher said he's going to the lead no matter what. Gate opens, AP is not out quick. JV is out well, JV is not sending.

If if didn't know better, this race seemed fixed like a 4 claimer at Penn.

if JV goes hell bent to the lead, 2 scenarios happen:

1) AP earns an unmistakable Belmont win

2) AP loses to frosted.

now to me, it was a joke of a cakewalk for the chalk.

Yes, 3rd time Espinoza broke his horse slow in the Belmont, admittedly not as bad as War Emblem or C.C. Frosted out broke both AP and Materiality. Frosted Jocks grabs, which gave J.V. Materiality every chance to go to the lead. Thus, the question why did J.V. grab too and inherent second because Frosted was held even more?

Maybe J.V. knew his horse didn't have it in him today? Sure looks that way based on the fade of Materiality.

Also, no other horse wanted to challenge A.P. Why? Maybe because they all thought A.P. couldn't get the distance and they could catch the tiring horse or maybe they thought they could not run with A.P.(see Mr. Z)? So yes it did turn into a cakewalk, because A.P. was too much horse for the rest.

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by highnote

If you have a great mare, do you send her to AP because he is fashionable, but unproven? Or do you send her to a more established sire?

Perhaps Pioneerof The Nile?

[highnote]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

That is an excellent and interesting question. I'd rather go to a proven sire that has overcome adversity to be victorious. From a heart perspective and from a true talent perspective.

Your thoughts?

Just like in betting, choosing a sire depends on the price.

Had AP been 6/5 or better today I'd have made a win bet on him.

If his stud fee is $50,000 I'd probably pass and look for a better value. If his stud fee was $25,000 it might be worth taking a shot just because you might be able to sell the filly or colt for a lot more than that.

I'd have to think about it some more. But my feeling is that he'll be overpriced as a freshman sire.

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by Show Me the Wire

Pincay had the horse to challenge Secretariat. None of these horses had that type of quality.

To add to your statement, Sham finished dead last because of that challenge. Maybe the jocks and trainers knew their horses better than we do. Maybe they knew AP was the real deal. All I know is that AP ran a steady race in full control and came home with a top 5 all time Belmont time.

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by depalma113

You've seen 50 claimers better than a Triple Crown winner? You might as well just stop now. You are looking more and more like a whining jealous fool with every post you write.

Could not agree more. Great job calling AP from the get go

[HILLJERRY2269]

The splits were amazing. Each one a consistent 24+
A machine.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Show Me the Wire

Yes, 3rd time Espinoza broke his horse slow in the Belmont, admittedly not as bad as War Emblem or C.C. Frosted out broke both AP and Materiality. Frosted Jocks grabs, which gave J.V. Materiality every chance to go to the lead. Thus, the question why did J.V. grab too and inherent second because Frosted was held even more?

Maybe J.V. knew his horse didn't have it in him today? Sure looks that way based on the fade of Materiality.

Also, no other horse wanted to challenge A.P. Why? Maybe because they all thought A.P. couldn't get the distance and they could catch the tiring horse or maybe they thought they could not run with A.P.? So yes it did turn into a cakewalk, because A.P. was too much horse for the rest.

If a horse runs away going 6 or 7 or 8 furlongs and rattles off excellent fractions, yes, I get it that NO ONE can run with them.

I don't care if JV was riding a 5 claimer. Any pig can go faster than 24 48 in a 12 FURLONG event. Especially a horse of the talent of Materiality.

So my conclusion is 1 of the following 3:

1) JV is braindead(very likely, had been so for many years except for when he pumps to death on a Pletcher 2Yo in a 5F race). Hard to screw that up

2) The plan was to say we will go in an attempt to make AP go faster than he wants to secure a lead AND sit 2nd in hopes he can't get 1 1/2 miles

3) Scott Bakula quantum leaped into JV's mind 5 seconds before the gate opened and of course Scott had no clue what the plan was.

Besides all that, I did say a week ago. AP's only chance was to walk through 1M and sprint home. An unlikely scenario but of course, the rocket scientists of 2015 (Johnny V and his colleagues) somehow allowed that to happen in a 12 FURLONG RACE!!!!

So in other words, the usual NYRA occurence happened again. CHOKE, CHOKE, CHOKE, CHOKE and pray lightning hits the leader LMAO

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by elhelmete

Perhaps Pioneerof The Nile?

Good one !!!!!