Can you fade Fierceness?

[Aerocraft67]

Fair to draw a line though the sloppy & sealed Champagne. But hard to forgive the Derby favorite for the Holy Bull. How valid was his excuse?

He won the Florida Derby going away, geared down, earning the field's best Beyer by 9. But he only needed a bit of work to break from the 8th post and lead a modest pace.

The BC Juvenile shows he doesn't need the lead. But it was another clear trip, pressing a modest pace from second (at 16-1, behind a 19-1).

How good of a trip does Fierceness need in the Derby, and what's the likelihood he gets it?

Surely more than one will send, and other rivals in the early running will take him on. Half the field might strive for an unmolested trip in the top flight. Half of them won't get that.

Sierra Leone has not run as fast, and risks traffic trouble closing. But he has navigated more traffic successfully, and can step up in speed like many others. I like him for that, but maybe he vies for favoritism accordingly.

You have to expect more adversity for Fierceness here. Perhaps his inability to overcome it is overblown. But his speed will get bet.

His accomplishments outweigh his disappointments in five races. The risk of dismissing him seems higher than the risk of his short price.

The post draw is a factor of course. But how far can you fade him?

[classhandicapper]

I'm not saying this is the correct conclusion or strategy, but you could consider him an "all or nothing" horse.

You could use him on top with any live bombs you like but leave him off tickets with other short or medium priced contenders.

That way if he wins with a bomb underneath, you'll get paid and if he's out completely you'll get paid, but if he comes in with Sierra Leone or some other such horse you'll lose but it's not like you missed out on some major score.

[Bustin Stones]

Fierceness has blossomed at the right moment and could crush this field from the front, but SL has that win on Ky soil with a positive running style for CD. Maybe an exacta box is the right play?

[bisket]

It’ll depend on his post position as to how I wager on him. I think he’s most likely to finish anywhere from 2nd to 4th. That seems to be where he ends up if he gets bothered a little during the race. He finishes evenly.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

No way in Hades am I including a horse this volatile in what will be the toughest race of his life at what I see to be ridiculously short odds.

Track looks like it may well come up wet to boot.

My very first punt of the race, and I'm not even giving it a 2nd thought.

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

you could consider him an "all or nothing" horse.

This was indeed my initial thinking. Or some kind of "saver" usage.

Originally Posted by bisket

I think he’s most likely to finish anywhere from 2nd to 4th. That seems to be where he ends up if he gets bothered a little during the race. He finishes evenly.

This aligns with my subsequent (over) thinking. Maybe both "win" and "out of the money" scenarios get overbet, rendering the best slots for Fierceness underneath. Bisket offers a logical case for that. The Derby favorite has indeed finished in the money under longshots the past several years.

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

No way in Hades am I including a horse this volatile in what will be the toughest race of his life at what I see to be ridiculously short odds.

I see what you did there. Can’t argue with taking a stand. Especially against the favorite.

I don’t want to talk myself into boxing the favorite. I also don’t want to miss a clever shot on top because I bet against the chalk underneath. Like last year.

How’s this: Fierceness encounters adversity but runs well behind some mid-tier shot that gets the ideal trip with a big improvement to win.

We’ll see about that shot once the proper handicapping starts.

[Jake]

Races like this lend their probabilities vs payoffs to a trifecta wager.

Jake

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm not saying this is the correct conclusion or strategy, but you could consider him an "all or nothing" horse.

You could use him on top with any live bombs you like but leave him off tickets with other short or medium priced contenders.

That way if he wins with a bomb underneath, you'll get paid and if he's out completely you'll get paid, but if he comes in with Sierra Leone or some other such horse you'll lose but it's not like you missed out on some major score.

I was thinking along the same lines - savers with him just on top. Which probably means he's a lock to run third and blow up all my tickets.

He's tossed in a couple of clunkers while fading, and that's a bit of a concern for me. Pletcher seems to have a lot of horses that give it up late when challenged, as opposed to those Baffert horses which often (and mysteriously) find a little extra in the stretch. But I don't have any verified data to back up that crazy yet imaginative thought....

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Fair to draw a line though the sloppy & sealed Champagne. But hard to forgive the Derby favorite for the Holy Bull. How valid was his excuse?

He won the Florida Derby going away, geared down, earning the field's best Beyer by 9. But he only needed a bit of work to break from the 8th post and lead a modest pace.

How good of a trip does Fierceness need in the Derby, and what's the likelihood he gets it?

Surely more than one will send, and other rivals in the early running will take him on. Half the field might strive for an unmolested trip in the top flight. Half of them won't get that.

You have to expect more adversity for Fierceness here. Perhaps his inability to overcome it is overblown. But his speed will get bet.

His accomplishments outweigh his disappointments in five races. The risk of dismissing him seems higher than the risk of his short price.

The post draw is a factor of course. But how far can you fade him?

I’m a bit perplexed by those who have 2nd thoughts about Fierceness’ potentials because of 2 failed races. I can easily throw out the Champagne stakes due to the sloppy track condition which it obviously did not like. But for those of you who don’t understand how the track condition can affect a true speed horse, then please do yourself a favor and take a peek at ALL the fractions in the Holly Bull stakes. Do you believe for a minute that they were actually running on one might consider to be a “Fast” track? If you do, then you’re destined to dismiss Fierceness capabilities and resort to wishful thinking about the remaining entries. You might also want to take a look at its troubled start in that race.

Horses like this don’t come along every year, but when they do, they’re the ones that can control every aspect of a race. If they’re good enough they’ll repeatedly dust those behind them, especially when none have demonstrated any real speed.

If you can’t tell already, I’m a Fierceness fan and will be on him no matter which post position it’s in or what the track condition turns out to be. If the others want to beat him, they’ll have to try and keep up by DRAMATICALLY improving upon their past performances.
(Has any other entry managed to run a "modest" 35 and change for a mile?). And I can't even imagine what happens if it makes an improvement over that "geared down" mile and 1/8th performance!
.
.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

This was indeed my initial thinking. Or some kind of "saver" usage.



This aligns with my subsequent (over) thinking. Maybe both "win" and "out of the money" scenarios get overbet, rendering the best slots for Fierceness underneath. Bisket offers a logical case for that. The Derby favorite has indeed finished in the money under longshots the past several years.



I see what you did there. Can’t argue with taking a stand. Especially against the favorite.

I don’t want to talk myself into boxing the favorite. I also don’t want to miss a clever shot on top because I bet against the chalk underneath. Like last year.

How’s this: Fierceness encounters adversity but runs well behind some mid-tier shot that gets the ideal trip with a big improvement to win.

We’ll see about that shot once the proper handicapping starts.

How’s this… he’s 2nd or 3rd to Encino the winner.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by bisket

How’s this… he’s 2nd or 3rd to Encino the winner.

Now there’s some “Wishful Thinking”!
Good luck with that one. You could be nicely rewarded.

Odds to win 2024 Kentucky Derby
Caesars Sportsbook & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada has updated their Fixed Odds to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby and bettors can start placing wagers on the below runners. The fixed odds will be removed before the Kentucky Derby Draw, which takes place on Saturday April 27, 2024.
• Fierceness 3-1
• Sierra Leone 7-2
• Dornoch 10-1
• Honor Marie 10-1
• Forever Young 11-1
• Catching Freedom 12-1
• Mystik Dan 16-1
• Just a Touch 20-1
• Track Phantom 20-1
• Resilience 20-1
• Stronghold 25-1
• Domestic Product 26-1
• Just Steel 30-1
• West Saratoga 40-1
• Catalytic 45-1
• Endlessly 50-1
• Common Defense 65-1
• Encino 65-1
• Society Man 100-1
• Grand Mo the First 100-1
• Uncle Heavy 125-1
• T O Password 125-1
• Uncle Heavy 125-1

[Bustin Stones]

Despite all the bluster about which horses SHOULD win, I defy anyone to profit from age restricted races who doesn't work in the stables. We cannot know which horses are taking a physical step up or which are getting over some condition that was holding them back or which aren't eating all their dinner. First hand knowledge trumps pretty much every other angle on paper.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm not saying this is the correct conclusion or strategy, but you could consider him an "all or nothing" horse.

You could use him on top with any live bombs you like but leave him off tickets with other short or medium priced contenders.

That way if he wins with a bomb underneath, you'll get paid and if he's out completely you'll get paid, but if he comes in with Sierra Leone or some other such horse you'll lose but it's not like you missed out on some major score.

Perhaps the Justify-Good Magic-Audible-Instilled Regard superfecta payout was a fluke but it still paid astronomical for three chalks on top. You can still get paid well if you have the right goofball in there.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Now there’s some “Wishful Thinking”!
Good luck with that one. You could be nicely rewarded.

Mike Welch needs to just say Encino galloped again this morning. No need to embellish any further than that. lol he's probably already cost me $10 on the dollar. Back on 2 weeks rest and the jock is still a mystery. Which means I won't get a rider adding to his chances. Those are the things you deal with at 20 or 30 to one. He's finished second once in 5 starts and you gotta love him in the stretch of the Lexington. He wants to win, and the fact Wine Steward went with him helps to hide the distance they put on the field. If he doesn't race on tapeta his entire career and he stays in the Bluegrass where he should have run. He's 10 to 1. I like him later in the spring and summer so I like him here. Right now he's in every exacta and tri. I'm thinking of a $10 tri box him, Fierceness and Leone. Exactas will be without the favorites. I don't think you can play a tri without the favorites. That could change after pp's come out...

[groupie doll]

Fierceness can absolutely fade, primarily if he gets a bad break or post. Otherwise, I still think he's the most likely winner, despite being somewhat erratic. His post position may be the biggest unknown factor. Deep inside draw will be more difficult for him. If he runs his A race no one else is close to him.
At similar odds he's a better must- use than Sierra Leone, imho, primarily because, thus far, he's shown to be been considerably faster than that one.