Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned
In the points era, here are the splits, eventual winner, and position at 2nd call:
2013: :45.33, 1:09.80 (Orb - 16th)
2014: :47.37, 1:11.80 (California Chrome - 3rd)
2015: :47.34, 1:11.29 (American Pharoah - 3rd)
2016: :45.72, 1:10.40 (Nyquist - 3rd)
2017: :46.53, 1:11.12 (Always Dreaming - 1st)
2018: :45.77, 1:11.11 (Justify - 2nd)
2019: :46.62, 1:12.50 (Maximum Security - 1st(DQ) Country House (9th))
2020: :46.41, 1:10.23 (Authentic - 1st)
2021: :46.24, 1:11.21 (Medina Spirit - 1st)
2022: :45.36, 1:10.34 (Rich Strike - 18th)
2023: :45.73, 1:10.11 (Mage - 16th)
A sub-:46 definitely seems to be the 'breaking point' although Nyquist was able to run on. Last two years have been absolute meltdowns in races that didn't look to have a ton of speed, but ended up in complete pace collapses.
2022 was set up by the Japanese contingent in Summer Is Tomorrow and Crown Pride blitzing to the front and carrying Zozos, Messier, Cyberknife, Taiba, and Charge It in their wake to nowhereville.
2023 was set up by Verifying, Kingsbarns, and Reincarnate blazing out early ridiculous fractions. Not sure I'd call any of those 'blazers' before last year's Derby.
This year? Dornoch draws the 1 hole, trainer Danny Gargan says they are full send. He was part of the :46.2 and 1:10.4 pace in the Bluegrass. Just a Touch was also part of those early fractions, and held on for 2nd. Track Phantom is definitely a need the lead type, but was part of the pedestrian fractions in the Fair Grounds derby preps which were never faster than :48 early. So he is similar to Kingsbarns who was a front runner last year, but had really never ran fast splits till Derby day.
Fierceness got easy fractions in the Florida Derby of :47.2 and was able to walk on the front. Then you also have Stronghold and Resilience and Epic Ride to his immediate outside that all will likely want to be at least somewhat forwardly placed and not caught 6 to 8 wide which is absolute death in the 1st turn. And who knows where the Japan contingent will look to sit? Afterall, they blew up the 2022 pace meltdown.
So, the elements are there, as they always are in the Kentucky Derby for a cooking pace. I have little doubt we'll be sub-:47. I'm sensing :45.4 to :46.4 early, and the answer to that full second 'spread' is likely the question we all somewhat need to answer. Fierceness is truly the only horse in the field that fits the profile of the 2014-2021 Derby winners. Question is if he is that good, and if he can sit 3rd to 5th early amid traffic in sub :47 splits and come out on top. And to top it all off, we'll likely have an off track.
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