Holy Bull Stakes

I'm taking a wait and see approach with this one. I am very interested to see how both Frac Daddy and Dewey Square perform because their last race was abnormally slow (and the track conditions at CD that over the course of the card lead me to believe the BSF for that race is probably not quite what it seems).

[Robert Fischer]

Itsmyluckyday looks like the wise guy horse.

[Tom]

Then I must be a wise guy!
I like him so far.
I do not like Bobby in here.

[redshift1]

Morning Line Odds:

4-5... Shanghai Bobby
8-1... Frac Daddy
12-1... Clearly Now
4-1... Bern identity
20-1... Sr. Quisqueyano
12-1... Dewey Square
6-1 ... Itsmyluckyday
30-1 ... Tulira Council
30-1... Fredricksburg
50-1... Joshuas Comprise

Will start by eliminating Fredricksburg and Joshuas Comprise who don't seem as good as the others at this point in their careers. Also tossing Clearly Now after Avie's Quality just ran up the track. Add Sr. Quisqueyano to the list he was just beaten easily by Itsmyluckyday.

Frac Daddy and Dewey Square Both raced in the KyJC-G2 finishing 2nd and 3rd respectively. Dewey Square a son of Bernardini.

Tulira Counci lightly raced at 30-1 my opinion the best price for the longshots.

Itsmyluckyday Impressive race on Jan 1st followed by a 2/58 work on the 19th.

Shanghai Bobby and Bern identity the favorites.

I'll go with these four in order:

Bern identity
Shanghai Bobby
Dewey Square
Itsmyluckyday

Tulira Council as a longshot.

.

[Robert Fischer]

23.17..45.10..1:09.11..1:21.69..1:34.39 ITSMYLUCKYDAY
23.14..45.16..1:09.37..1:22.13..1:35.55 SR. QUISQUEYANO


24.12..46.63..1:10.81..1:23.37..1:36.35 TULIRA CASTLE


I don't know how fast the track was that day, but Tulira Castle is far superior to Sr. Quesqueyano. Itsmyluckyday was impressive however. I had him making a huge improvement after being out-moved in the Jackpot and Dania Beach.

Bobby is beatable, but he's a classy, well-meant Pletcher bullet. He couldn't ask for a better track setup. Itsmyluckyday(9-2 ?) could be 3-4 wide into the first turn.
Even Money could be a fair price for Shanghai Bobby. Maybe it's worth using Bobby with a few others in multi-race bets if you have strong contenders in surrounding legs?

I really like Tulira Castle as a colt, but starting in the 8hole here is going to be an issue. I'm not 100% sure he's fast enough to win, but he is a serious contender for minor awards. If he shows good energy, and gets a bad outside trip, I can make money on him in future races at the appropriate class. 4-1 was a steal last out vs. Fredricksburg. He was best in the Keeneland Allowance.

[redshift1]

Last year Hansen came into this race undefeated but was soundly beaten by Algorithms after quick fractions. Maybe we see a repeat this year in a race that appears more open than the early odds indicate.

I was going to put Itsmyluckyday higher but I can't get around the Delta race at today's distance.

.

[precocity]

hope I get 4-1 or more on Bern identity going to unload on him!

[Beachbabe]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

23.17..45.10..1:09.11..1:21.69..1:34.39 ITSMYLUCKYDAY
23.14..45.16..1:09.37..1:22.13..1:35.55 SR. QUISQUEYANO


24.12..46.63..1:10.81..1:23.37..1:36.35 TULIRA CASTLE


I don't know how fast the track was that day, but Tulira Castle is far superior to Sr. Quesqueyano. Itsmyluckyday was impressive however. I had him making a huge improvement after being out-moved in the Jackpot and Dania Beach.

Bobby is beatable, but he's a classy, well-meant Pletcher bullet. He couldn't ask for a better track setup. Itsmyluckyday(9-2 ?) could be 3-4 wide into the first turn.
Even Money could be a fair price for Shanghai Bobby. Maybe it's worth using Bobby with a few others in multi-race bets if you have strong contenders in surrounding legs?

I really like Tulira Castle as a colt, but starting in the 8hole here is going to be an issue. I'm not 100% sure he's fast enough to win, but he is a serious contender for minor awards. If he shows good energy, and gets a bad outside trip, I can make money on him in future races at the appropriate class. 4-1 was a steal last out vs. Fredricksburg. He was best in the Keeneland Allowance.

I'll beg to differ. I say Sr. Quesqueyano beats Tulira Castle tomorrow.
You say Itsmyluckyday was impressive but you diss Sr.Q who was coming off a 45 day layoff when he ran second in the GP Derby.
Having said that, there's a distinct possibility that both Sr.q & Its.... bounce off those efforts. Now that I covered my butt with that statement I'm going to make a small wager on Sr.Q & bet him top & bottom with Shanghai Bobby.

[elysiantraveller]

I'll probably take a stab with Frac Daddy.

[tbwinner]

Frac Daddy for me too. Side bet on the 9-Fredericksburg.

2/1,4,6,9 ex's
Tri's....
2,9/2,9/all
2,9/all/2,9

hoping for SB to run out, and that's not just hoping, I think it's a reasonable chance he might.

[dnlgfnk]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I doubt anybody is firing real hard in their first start of the year after a BC win.

In a $400k G3, with today's mindset of entering stakes horses sparingly, and a point system that nobody is really sure about?

[precocity]

so far
W/P-
TRI BOX- IF THE SB WINS WONT PAY JACK!

SUPER WILL PLAY THE THE ONES I HAVE WITH THE IN SOME WHEELS!
GOOD LUCK.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Interesting race for my first bet of the year!I've got 38 total speed points in here but no burners and GP has been kind to such but now if anytime is right to bet against Bobby.

I like Bern Identity,It'smyluckyday,and Frac Daddy,in that order.

Bern-I think will love going from the tight turns at Delta to this track and the 4 post won't hurt him.Worked well for this and is 4-2-1-1 layoff/1ts.

Lucky-I'm using the PP's from Bris so the pace-speed numbers will be different than most.This guy posted a double top of 122-107 in a 1 turn mile.By far the most complete of all the entrants.Only a 25 day turnaround suggests a bounce but this one has turned around quick after such a manuever and I'll take it at face value and/or he loves this track.

Frac Daddy-Should sit a perfect trip by post and by desired spot 2 lengths back at the half mile.

If we believe the projections of 3's improving 1.5 points a month,considering when these posted their tops,Bobby projects to run a 113,Frac a 110,and Bern a 106.With Lucky's 107 this makes them the top 4.The rest project lower than 100.Bobby is a little unbalanced speed/pace IMO.He ran a 121-86 in the BC and a 68-107 in the Champagne.He'll get some continuous pressure today unless everybody else plays stupid!I've got Frac's best as 81-105,Bern at 97-102,with honorable mentionof the #5 at 120-96.

All this is odds dependant but my big bet will be on Bern at 3-1 or better and I'll take the best odds of the Lucky and Frac.I really like Lucky and think his odds go up from the 6-1 ML.Taking exactas with these two and over top Bobby,using savers at minimum.Then I'll take a $1 tri 4 with 1-5-6 over 2-7.Should get decent money if any of the 5 run 2nd.Total play $43.

[dnlgfnk]

"Lucky-I'm using the PP's from Bris so the pace-speed numbers will be different than most.This guy posted a double top of 122-107 in a 1 turn mile.By far the most complete of all the entrants.Only a 25 day turnaround suggests a bounce but this one has turned around quick after such a manuever and I'll take it at face value and/or he loves this track."

Cincy,
There may be something to like about "Lucky", but it's not the pace/speed numbers, especially in the GP Derby, where Undrafted did all the heavy lifting, hustling from somewhat behind after breaking from the (inherently, subtly slower, IMO) inside. From years of observation, the :21-4 quarter (the naked time of the quarters is explanatory enough w/o need of variants- it gibes with the finish where the field is exceptionally strung out) does not fully reflect the second quarter, but mysteriously explains Undrafted's being roused visually by Velazquez to clear Sr. Quisqeyano and Lucky within the :23 first quarter mile. As he relaxes into an unpressured stride, he clicks off the :21-4 which now affects the rest of the field (see the abberant finishes of Almost English, 8-5 Star Contender).

I suspect that a horse "spins it's wheels" when 1st roused from a relaxed stride in the early portions of races, before extending after some ground has been covered, in order to explain seemingly slow fractions that are actually pressured in part.

Put another way, "It's not how fast a horse runs, it's how he runs fast that counts" --"Charlie", in Andy Beyer's "The Winning Horseplayer".

I'm always looking to upgrade slower looking figures, where a horse had a potentially difficult trip that explains his poorer figs. In my initial speculation, after being outrun to the first turn, Dewey Square may have begun his move to contention well wide while still on the later bend of the first turn , essentially using pre-stretch effort without gaining significant ground. Not a four star overlay, but an interesting one.
Good luck today.

[Robert Fischer]

Final thoughts


Shanghai Bobby looks to be a worthy favorite. I see no reason to play against him. I'll still be looking for wager opportunities. He toyed with Bern, he toyed with Goldencents, he toyed with the Juvenile field. Now he has a great post position.

Itsmyluckyday has grown on me a little. I think he is an athletic horse and I think he's matured to the point that this distance is right in his wheelhouse. I expect a slightly wide trip but a clear trip. I don't love him, but he could contend or even win. He has enough talent that a big win could put him on the Derby map.

Dewey Square - It's hard to know until they do something, but this one has all the signs that he as the Potential to improve. He should be bigger and stronger. He likes the distance. I just can't eliminate him from the mix. I'll be surprised if he crushes the field or something, but he should run a good race, and appreciate more distance in the future.

Tulira Castle - I think he's up against it here. I'd love to see him pick up the pieces drive home wide in the stretch for 3rd. Nice horse.


Post Position - It's very likely the inside post positions could move some horses up. Frac Daddy- Has some talent. Hopefully he doesn't lug-in and interfere with anyone here. He should get a great trip here and it makes him hard to toss. Bern Identity- This is a solid enough horse. He's another that will be hard to toss from the vertical exotics due to his post position.

Tough betting race. Good Luck.